Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh
Quote:
Originally Posted by STK
Good question. Given the timelines of the major manufacturers, I'd guess less than 10 years for autonomous vehicles. Once that happens, it will take over urban markets pretty quickly. Given the speed and safety improvements, areas of the city, beginning with the center and moving successively outward, will ban driver operated vehicles. I also see the introduction of autonomous long haul trucking. Lots of money to be saved.
I see a mix of autonomous fleets, autonomous individual owned, driver-driven electric, and legacy IC cars for quite a while. It will also depend on where you live - city, burbs, exurbs, or rural.
There are also built in biases from manufacturers. Of course BMW wants everyone to have an individually owned car. But once people are not driving them, cars will get commoditized pretty quickly.
To see what the markets think of the autonomous driving future, take a look at NVIDIA (NVDA) one of the leaders in autonomous technology among other GPU end uses. Look at the 2 year and five year charts.
The implications of this switch are enormous in a host of dimensions- which companies will survive, employment in the auto and related sectors from auto and parts manufacturing to professional drivers (truck, delivery, can), to public health, to infrastructure. This is a big deal.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.  |
Speaking just in the USA, you make no mention of the US DOT. I think everyone is missing this component of the implementation. I think autonomous transportation is several decades (at least 3) away if it is ever implemented. You mentioned "ban". Ban has many implications related to personal freedom of movement. Other than the massive technological hurdles to overcome, the legal issues are just as large to overcome. |
We'll see. States are tripping over themselves to allow for testing. Lots of big auto and tech money behind it. Huge race with China which has electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and AI in their 5-year plan. Granted level 5 is really hard. But the momentum is enormous. The DOT did fuck all for years when 50K Americans a year were dying- about the same number that died over the whole Vietnam War.
The DOT isn't independent. It really depends on how the Congress and the President react to the countervailing interests. We'll see what interests are opposed. It's not as if driving is currently a safe activity.