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      07-14-2017, 03:17 PM   #16
jkoral
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Drives: '09 135i MSport 6MT
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I'm not taking a position, but I did see a couple things in the news recently:

ING study - By 2035 only electric cars will be sold in Europe
http://nltimes.nl/2017/07/13/dutch-b...-electric-2035


RethinkX: Self-Driving Electric Cars Will Dominate Roads by 2030
http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-t...-roads-by-2030

(Google the RethinkX for the 77 page PDF, as well as other articles analyzing the study).

Here's is one guy's summary (not mine):

"According to the Transport as a Service (TaaS) theorists, personally owned ICE cars will be largely obsolete by 2030. They expect sales of ICE cars to collapse in the mid 2020s as autonomous EV robotaxis take over most passenger miles, so that by 2030 only 5% of passenger miles will be in personally owned, human-driven vehicles. ICE usage will collapse not only due to its far greater expense per mile than EVs, but also because the service network (fuel stations, maintenance and equipment suppliers) supporting ICEs will collapse.

To emphasize: what TaaS theorists see is not that everyone replaces their ICE with an EV. Instead, we have a much smaller number of fleet-owned autonomous EV taxis that have far higher usage rates (in use 40-50% of the time as opposed to 5% in the case of personally owned ICE cars). These autonomous EVs will cost a fraction of the cost per mile of current vehicle costs, and will offer far greater convenience and safety. Their smaller numbers mean we can reclaim much of the massive acreage currently devoted to parking."