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      07-14-2017, 03:42 PM   #18
mkoesel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkoral View Post
Here's is one guy's summary (not mine):

"According to the Transport as a Service (TaaS) theorists, personally owned ICE cars will be largely obsolete by 2030. They expect sales of ICE cars to collapse in the mid 2020s as autonomous EV robotaxis take over most passenger miles, so that by 2030 only 5% of passenger miles will be in personally owned, human-driven vehicles. ICE usage will collapse not only due to its far greater expense per mile than EVs, but also because the service network (fuel stations, maintenance and equipment suppliers) supporting ICEs will collapse.

To emphasize: what TaaS theorists see is not that everyone replaces their ICE with an EV. Instead, we have a much smaller number of fleet-owned autonomous EV taxis that have far higher usage rates (in use 40-50% of the time as opposed to 5% in the case of personally owned ICE cars). These autonomous EVs will cost a fraction of the cost per mile of current vehicle costs, and will offer far greater convenience and safety. Their smaller numbers mean we can reclaim much of the massive acreage currently devoted to parking."

I see the word "collapse" used repeatedly in his summary.

Why is it that people actually believe that everything is going to happen on such a frenzied timeline that automakers will be caught completely and hopelessly off guard?

If this collapse is really happening in the mid 2020's, that means that most vehicles being designed today for introduction by the early 2020's won't even last through their normal product cycle. Come on now. The automotive and transportation sector isn't heading into this with blinders on, marching the industry into a proverbial ICE wall. They aren't designing products which have no hope of economic viability just a few short years after their release. Certainly not every product performs as hoped, so sure, maybe some will not be profitable - but that's par for the course. The conspiracy theorists would have us believe that every last conventional vehicle in the pipeline today is doomed. It's complete and utter nonsense.

We all know *what* is happening and what is coming. Or we have a pretty good idea - those of use willing to be honest with ourselves do, anyway. But if we are going to have a meaningful conversation about *when* its coming, we have to at least be reasonable enough to come up with a timeline based on plausible evolutionary steps. Because at the end of the day, governments can't just snap their fingers and say "Ok guys, you have to build only EVs starting... wait for it... NOW!". It all has to happen in a controlled fashion, and like most other paradigm shifts, the forces pulling the strings and making things happen on either sides of the equation aren't just going to roll over and give in. Negotiating all of this is going to keep all parties busy for many years to come.
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