Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel
Well of course we both know it is technologically possible so it is physically possible as well. But there is the economic side and forces at play there make a new V10 no more likely than a V12 or V16 or whatever else we could dream up. I think that we agree those have a 0% chance in any new M5 or other performance sedan in its class (or below).
The average engine displacement is shrinking because turbocharging is becoming a standard engine feature. Engines above 5L will soon be gone from sports sedans and even displacements above 4L are becoming a rarity. Regardless of the emissions and efficiency benefits, and regardless of whether those can even be proven to be universally legitimate, this trend won't reverse because the industry as a whole has built economies of scale on this technology. Exotics are another matter entirely, of course.
There is simply no room in the costing model for small displacement engines with extra cylinders they don't need. You can build one but you lose money instantly to your competitor who didn't and still met consumer expectations. It is that simple. So again, while we both know it can be built, I am calling it right now that it won't be. And like I said earlier I am happy to wager on it if you are game. 
By the way, if you want a sneak peak at the momentum in German car displacement shrinkage, keep a sharp eye on the W213 E Class developments. Word is the new turbocharged I6 (yes, that's correct) will be the top of the line engine in ~435hp form. I would not bet yet that the non-AMG V8 model is dead, but I think there's a real good shot. If that happens, look for BMW and Audi to follow suit with 4xx hp 3.0L turbocharged 6 cylinder engines taking over for V8s in this segment. That of course opens the door for the V8 as an exclusive for the M, AMG, and RS models. Well, for now that is. BMW has already said 200hp/L is on their radar so how long does the V8 have honestly - two more generations? Couple the six with an electric motor and we can get to 800hp, So then a V8 starts to look like overkill. And a V10? We might as well be talking about a flathead straight eight. |
The first to go that way was Maserati with the 3.0l V6 making 410 PS, and it can go to 520 PS like in the Maserati Alfieri or possible Alfa Romeo Giulia or 6C.
Now it looks this way:
I3 = ~ 200 PS
I4 = ~ 300 PS
I6/V6 = ~ 400 PS
V8 = > 500 PS
Too bad all go for modular engines using 0.5l per cylinder, meaning that the number of cylinders has a direct correlation with displacement.
If for example the next M3 would get a 2.0l engine, that is not a problem per se if it was a 2.0l I6. But it will likely be a 2.0l I4, as it would use the same 0.5l displacement per cylinder as all other engines. For now the 3.8l V8s of Ferrari/Maserati and McLaren are the most interesting, as they are engines with many cylinders but lower displacement per cylinder than 0.5l.
I personally don't think big engines will disappear, as long we have ICE. Look at the new 7 Series G11; it will get an even bigger V12 Biturbo, of 6.6l. Mercedes will surely try to continue developing the V12, and lower costs by selling the engine to Aston Martin that desperately needs new V8 and V12 engine. Some years ago there were rumors of Aston Martin Vantage replacement getting an I6. Now with Mercedes it is possible.
The only engine I see staying, is Lexus 2UR, V8 engine, in displacement sizes 4.6, 5.0, 5.7, all made by only changing the stroke. It is so reliable, so fuel efficient and will only get better. Fitting to it some turbos will not be an issue, as we have seen with the Lexus LS TMG, it made 650 reliable PS.