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Is the price difference really that dramatic just for CPO? CPO is generally about $2.5K to $3K difference, I think that's what dealers charge to CPO a car or buy additional insurance.
The CPO on a 2011 should last 6 yrs, at least until 2016 (say it was put into service in 2010) or even 2017 (if it was put in service 2011). Repairs on these cars are expensive unless you have a really good indy. If you plan on taking it to BMW dealer, you need CPO. Dealers make no small repairs, they just replace entire assemblies.
I have a 750, it sucks fuel and has more power than generally needed, so a 740 might not be a bad compromise.
Also, look at your payments if you buy used (0.9% financing) versus lease new. Buying is a higher payment, takes keeping the car 3-4 years to make buying cheaper.
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