I think the internal combustion engine will be gone in a decade

[ron_jeremy]

Having only ICE drivetrain is coming to an end fast, ICE will be gone in 10 years time.

[mkoesel]

Having only ICE drivetrain is coming to an end fast, ICE will be gone in 10 years time.

No, sir. Repeating this false statement will not make it come true. PHEV will increase sharply in the 2020s, and likely dominate by the end of that decade. But obviously a PHEV still has an ICE.

[ron_jeremy]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

No, sir. Repeating this false statement will not make it come true. PHEV will increase sharply in the 2020s, and likely dominate by the end of that decade. But obviously a PHEV still has an ICE.

A PHEV has an ICE onboard, that we can agree on.
But I think we're pretty much on each side of the world, considering the EV vs ICE thingy.
China and India are basicly driving the car industry these days, EU and US are less intresting nowadays. That includes politics and obviously cars as well.
While most countries are going forward with new green tech, US look to be going in the other direction?

Norway have 27% EV, combined with hybrids, it's over 50% of the marked, i think beeing close to such a market, gives you a different view.
Having a different view, doesn't make me a liar or POS, this is a great worldwide forum, which we can state our different views.

As for the ICE looking ahead in 10 years time, different market will be in different stages, as for my home market, it's stated from our goverment, that the ICE will not be sold after 2025.
And i belive Germany and Belgium have stated the same by 2030.
Now that is not very far of from my 10 year predicament.

[mkoesel]

You have not presented even the slightest hint of a reasoned analysis as to how this could all play out. If every single ICE powered vehicle today were going to be replaced by an EV equivalent in only ten years, that would mean that a transition plan must already be in place. However, there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that this is the case.

How about this? Let's take a simple example - we'll use the Ford F150 - and list out year-by-year what will power that vehicle from today in 2017 up to 2027 when you claim the ICE will be dead.

2017 - 2.7L V6 Turbo, 3.5L V6, 3.5L V6 Turbo, 5.0L V8
2018 - 2.7L V6 Turbo, 3.3L V6, 3.5L V6 Turbo, 5.0L V8, 3.0L V6 diesel
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027 - all electric motors! Yay, the planet is saved!

Kindly fill in the blanks with your predictions. Please enlighten us.

[tranquility]

Eventually, but 10 years in the whole wide world? No. ICE is quite inefficient and too many moving parts.

[bimmer456]

Originally Posted by tranquility

Eventually, but 10 years in the whole wide world? No. ICE is quite inefficient and too many moving parts.

There will be plenty of ICE's in the world even if all ICE production stops for many years to come.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by bimmer456

There will be plenty of ICE's in the world even if all ICE production stops for many years to come.

Hell, there are plenty of two cycle ICE motors in the third world. Those aren't going anywhere for 50+ years.

[tranquility]

Originally Posted by bimmer456

There will be plenty of ICE's in the world even if all ICE production stops for many years to come.

Ofc, and there are many working Model Ts as well. Pretty sure OP's talking about production ending, not that all ICEs mysteriously 'vanish' in 10 years lol.

[NickyC]

The dawn of EVs, along with autonomous driving, has been greatly exaggerated. We're still decades away from either being the majority of what is seen on the road.

[tranquility]

Originally Posted by NickyC

The dawn of EVs, along with autonomous driving, has been greatly exaggerated. We're still decades away from either being the majority of what is seen on the road.

Again, ofc, but for those ppl that are implying ICEs are here to stay are delusional. Yes, this is the car industry, where a different placement for the cup holder is an 'innovation', so change is super-slooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow, but let's not kid ourselves, ICEs will die eventually, not in 10 years, but it will.

[The HACK]

Originally Posted by NickyC

The dawn of EVs, along with autonomous driving, has been greatly exaggerated. We're still decades away from either being the majority of what is seen on the road.

Funny thing is, I used to argue that about the end of manual transmission about 15 years ago. And here we stand, on the precipice of the end of driving with a 3rd pedal, with almost ALL but the most die-hard and hard core "performance" brands holding onto some sort of 3rd pedal offering as a gesture to the small, almost insignificant percentage of the driving public that can actually operate 3 pedals with 2 feet.

I see it as this. Battery and charging technologies are evolving much MUCH faster than mechanical/ICE technologies. For ICE engines to double the output for the same capacity it would take about 25 years (we've seen that trend pretty consistently through out the last 100+ years). For electric propulsion that is happening every 3-5 years now, and the rate will continue to accelerate to perhaps on par with Moore's law of doubling every 2 years. ICE can't keep up with that sort of rapid advancement.

Where we are right now, again, is where I used to stand back 15 years ago. I used to argue that automatic, torque converter based transmission can never keep up with manuals in efficiency, transmission of power, and package, that manuals will always be lighter, smaller, and offer better fuel economy.

Well, guess what? In the last 15 years, automatic transmissions have gotten much better at shoehorning in more gears, thus allowing über tall overdriven gears for highway efficiency, while stuffing in ultra short first 2-3 gears to achieve acceleration numbers on-par with manuals. Software designed to lock certain valves to force the torque converter to lock down instead of spinning freely shortly after a gear has engaged has continued to make gear transitions shorter, to a point that gear to gear changes on an auto now happen much faster than a human can engage in a manual. At this point the ONLY argument for driving with 3 pedals is the sheer "enjoyment" of being able to execute something analog as a lost art vs. "letting the machine do it for you."

In all reality, automatics can match and BEAT manuals in almost all performance and statistical categories, AND offers the ability for the masses to actually operate instead of only the select, initiated few (percentage of adults capable of operating manual transmission cars in the U.S. is probably in the single digit range. And I mean operate, not actually DRIVE). At this point manual transmission's future is bleak.

Sure, there'll probably still be some manufactures that continue to offer manuals for ROW and for the enthusiasts (re: Porsche). But for all intent and purposes, the manual transmission is dead.

The same can't be said for ICE propulsion, but the days will come when pure electrical propulsion can match ICE in all performance and statistical categories. At that point it would no longer make any sense to continue the "dance," just as there will no longer be a case for manual transmissions to be equipped on cars. That day is not that far off in the future when EVs can:

Accelerate faster. Telsa has already proven that electrical propulsion is superior than ICE propulsion in a straight line. The P100D, for all purposes, can accelerate to 120mph as fast if not faster than all but the most exotic of sports cars.

Has better range. We're not quite there yet, but the days where nanowire Litihium Ion batteries that will double, triple, or quadruple battery capacity while reducing the size, and improve battery life is right around the corner. In 5 years EVs capable of 300mi range will be commonplace. In 10 years EVs capable of up to 1,000mi range will more than likely be amongst us.

Can "refill" nearly as fast. Level 3 fast DC chargers can now add about 50mi of range in 15 minutes. I stopped at Long Beach BMW to get some parts, plugged in my dad's i3 to their fast charger, and by the time I am done in 15 minutes the i3 was fully charged. How quickly the EV can charge is all but a function of the difference in potential, voltage, and current...A DC charger capable of delivering say, 10X the voltage of current DC superchargers (5,000V) can drive say, 10x the amperage through at 1,250amp can potentially charge the i3 full in less than 5 minutes. A 20,000V DC charger can potentially charge a 1,000 mile EV in the time it takes to order a burger. These are all hypothetical, of course, but the technology is not far off. once the industry can figure out a safe way to deliver such high voltage through daily, public use, the days of being able to fill up your Tesla quicker than you can fill up a gas tank is coming.

Where to refill? This is likely going to be the last hurdle, as it does take government infrastructure spending in the power grid to deliver so much KWh of power to so many hungry EVs. THIS is the true roadblock to EV saturation, IMO. An EV can get 10,000mi of range, if you can't fill it back up with electrons (misnomer, I know) it's useless. This is pretty much the only thing that dictates whether or not EV become fully saturated because, other than the convenience of fill-ups, all other technology are on the horizon to make EVs far superior than ICE as a mean of propulsion.

So, from a practical perspective, electric propulsion offers the ability to better package (electrical motors are much smaller and lighter and can deliver more torque and power already than ICE motors), you can install 4 small motors to drive each individual wheels rather than 1 big motor to drive 2 or 4 wheels via a power sapping transmission, once scientists solve the problem of mass producing nanowire LiON batteries, the entire drivetrain (say, 4 small electric motors and battery) can potentially weigh less than an ICE capable of delivery the same power ratings (remember, the 4 motors concept do not require driveshaft, differential, and transmission). You can dramatically lower the center of gravity and increase cabin space because the hardware to deliver power to each wheel is no longer required, and batteries can be laid out to minimize space. Power delivery to each wheel can be monitored and individually adjusted based on surface conditions and operating conditions (i.e. torque vectoring on demand). Once the draw-backs for EV is solved, there's absolutely no reason for ICE just as there's little to no justification for manual over autos today, except for the raw, soul enriching experience of an inline 6 (or a high revving V8) screaming to its 8,100RPM redline coming from the @ss end of the car.

But BMW can program that into your audio system, apparently.

[The Wind Breezes]

10 years is too damn short. It won't happen unless lawmakers ban the ICE which they won't.

[ron_jeremy]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

You have not presented even the slightest hint of a reasoned analysis as to how this could all play out. If every single ICE powered vehicle today were going to be replaced by an EV equivalent in only ten years, that would mean that a transition plan must already be in place. However, there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that this is the case.

How about this? Let's take a simple example - we'll use the Ford F150 - and list out year-by-year what will power that vehicle from today in 2017 up to 2027 when you claim the ICE will be dead.

2017 - 2.7L V6 Turbo, 3.5L V6, 3.5L V6 Turbo, 5.0L V8
2018 - 2.7L V6 Turbo, 3.3L V6, 3.5L V6 Turbo, 5.0L V8, 3.0L V6 diesel
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027 - all electric motors! Yay, the planet is saved!

Kindly fill in the blanks with your predictions. Please enlighten us.

I tried to tell you in my previous post.
We have a very different view of the world, and our two countries have two very different view and culture about the car and it´s industry.
And basically, the environment as a whole.
And that - for me is what makes for an interesting discussion.


Now, let´s keep it clean, i´m not a very green guy, i just happen to enjoy our EV (i´ve only driven the i3). It sure has it drawbacks, and i´m not seeing the EV as a world savior. But perhaps as one of the tools, to make for a more clean and better world.

Let´s look at some numbers first.
In Norway, all transport (air, sea and land) currently stand for about 25% off all pollution, that´s domestic numbers. and the car and vehicles in general, again is responsible for about 30% of these numbers.
And since we live way up north - we have cold winters, which means the air within our biggest cities are far from ideal. This in combination with early EV industry, and a general green government, makes for very EV friendly taxes and politics.

And as i said earlier, Norway has said it will not be sold ICE powered cars in Norway after 2025. It´s a statement, i do not think it´s going to happen until 2030, as German and Belgium also have said.
But this is only new cars, surely there will be ICE cars for decades to come. If not taxes are active used on gas and diesel prices that is.
Now this is within Norway and perhaps some part of the EU. I don´t think America will have these goals, it all depends on politics. But i predict after this period, a shift is needed.
You guys can embrace old tech and close your eyes, or you can look at the new tech as a possibility.

What drew me to BMW, was the E30 and it´s brilliant M30 engine (325i), my first BMW. A car i still love to this day, and i love to own one in the future.

But after owning and driven the i01 (i3) these past 9 months, going back to a diesel or any ICE drivetrain, and transmission - feels extremely inefficient, outdated and stupid.
The efficiency of a Electric engine is about 92%, the diesel about 38-40%, the petrol engine is about 25%.

Now as for your Q, filling in the blanks, that´s the beauty. We do not have these giant cars, this is EU, we have pretty much only 1.0-2.0l engines, and smaller cars.
Which means it´s lighter and easier to power.
Surely there will be a blend of different use of EV in cars in the future, and full blown EV´s.
Just look at the just announced Audi A8, with a small Electric engine in it´s transmission, such solutions remains the rest of the ICE lifecycle.

Pretty much the whole world, and the entire car industry is coming to Norway to see how our EV politics works, and how it´s being build up. The world is not ending with the EV, there have been big changes before, and it will be even more changes in the future, and they will come faster, we need to adapt to it.

[Shredicus]

Good luck making all those batteries without handing China the keys to the global economy. Raw resources on fleek over thur

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by ron_jeremy

I tried to tell you in my previous post.
We have a very different view of the world, and our two countries have two very different view and culture about the car and it´s industry.
And basically, the environment as a whole.
And that - for me is what makes for an interesting discussion.

Right, I understand that and accept your point there.

But when you are making general statements about timelines you can't simply look at what's going on in your part of the world to draw a conclusion. When we talk about BMW, and really most every major car manufacturer in the world, we are talking about global products. So if you are going to make claims about what will power such vehicles in the future, you have to consider every region in which they are sold.

Sure, I realize you don't have vehicles like the F150 in Norway. But we do here in America, so you need to take that into account when making predictions about global EV proliferation. Furthermore, although you may not have the F150, I am sure there are commercial trucks, construction vehicles, and other service vehicles which are not on a ten year timeline for a switch to electric propulsion. So, even if the government in your country can incentivize every last citizen to give up their current flavor of personal transportation for a Model 3 or Leaf or Bolt of i3 or whatever else compelling comes along in the next few years, there are still many other use cases for ICE engines that aren't going to be covered by Tesla or Polestar or whatever other manufacturer any time soon.

[jkoral]

I'm not taking a position, but I did see a couple things in the news recently:

ING study - By 2035 only electric cars will be sold in Europe
http://nltimes.nl/2017/07/13/dutch-b...-electric-2035


RethinkX: Self-Driving Electric Cars Will Dominate Roads by 2030
http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-t...-roads-by-2030

(Google the RethinkX for the 77 page PDF, as well as other articles analyzing the study).

Here's is one guy's summary (not mine):

"According to the Transport as a Service (TaaS) theorists, personally owned ICE cars will be largely obsolete by 2030. They expect sales of ICE cars to collapse in the mid 2020s as autonomous EV robotaxis take over most passenger miles, so that by 2030 only 5% of passenger miles will be in personally owned, human-driven vehicles. ICE usage will collapse not only due to its far greater expense per mile than EVs, but also because the service network (fuel stations, maintenance and equipment suppliers) supporting ICEs will collapse.

To emphasize: what TaaS theorists see is not that everyone replaces their ICE with an EV. Instead, we have a much smaller number of fleet-owned autonomous EV taxis that have far higher usage rates (in use 40-50% of the time as opposed to 5% in the case of personally owned ICE cars). These autonomous EVs will cost a fraction of the cost per mile of current vehicle costs, and will offer far greater convenience and safety. Their smaller numbers mean we can reclaim much of the massive acreage currently devoted to parking."

[tranquility]

Funny another thread is claiming that Tesla will be gone in 10 years...WHICH ONE IS IT, DAMMIT??? LOL.

Added link:
http://e89.zpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1402190

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by jkoral

Here's is one guy's summary (not mine):

"According to the Transport as a Service (TaaS) theorists, personally owned ICE cars will be largely obsolete by 2030. They expect sales of ICE cars to collapse in the mid 2020s as autonomous EV robotaxis take over most passenger miles, so that by 2030 only 5% of passenger miles will be in personally owned, human-driven vehicles. ICE usage will collapse not only due to its far greater expense per mile than EVs, but also because the service network (fuel stations, maintenance and equipment suppliers) supporting ICEs will collapse.

To emphasize: what TaaS theorists see is not that everyone replaces their ICE with an EV. Instead, we have a much smaller number of fleet-owned autonomous EV taxis that have far higher usage rates (in use 40-50% of the time as opposed to 5% in the case of personally owned ICE cars). These autonomous EVs will cost a fraction of the cost per mile of current vehicle costs, and will offer far greater convenience and safety. Their smaller numbers mean we can reclaim much of the massive acreage currently devoted to parking."

I see the word "collapse" used repeatedly in his summary.

Why is it that people actually believe that everything is going to happen on such a frenzied timeline that automakers will be caught completely and hopelessly off guard?

If this collapse is really happening in the mid 2020's, that means that most vehicles being designed today for introduction by the early 2020's won't even last through their normal product cycle. Come on now. The automotive and transportation sector isn't heading into this with blinders on, marching the industry into a proverbial ICE wall. They aren't designing products which have no hope of economic viability just a few short years after their release. Certainly not every product performs as hoped, so sure, maybe some will not be profitable - but that's par for the course. The conspiracy theorists would have us believe that every last conventional vehicle in the pipeline today is doomed. It's complete and utter nonsense.

We all know *what* is happening and what is coming. Or we have a pretty good idea - those of use willing to be honest with ourselves do, anyway. But if we are going to have a meaningful conversation about *when* its coming, we have to at least be reasonable enough to come up with a timeline based on plausible evolutionary steps. Because at the end of the day, governments can't just snap their fingers and say "Ok guys, you have to build only EVs starting... wait for it... NOW!". It all has to happen in a controlled fashion, and like most other paradigm shifts, the forces pulling the strings and making things happen on either sides of the equation aren't just going to roll over and give in. Negotiating all of this is going to keep all parties busy for many years to come.

[David70]

Currently EV's are at less than 1% and the average age of cars on the road is over 10 years old. No chance on all ICEs being gone in 10 years.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by Shredicus

Good luck making all those batteries without handing China the keys to the global economy. Raw resources on fleek over thur

While China currently buys our oil and sits in their own reserves

[The HACK]

Those of you who don't think the auto industry will be blindsided by this, I give you this list.

AOL (blindsided by, well, the Internets)
Retail industry (blindsided by Amazon)
Video rental (blindsided by Netflix)
Personal computers (blindsided by Mobile computing)
Physical Data Storage (blindsided by cloud storage)
Broadcast TV (blindsided by streaming services)

List actually goes on and on. Now, most of these will survive in one form or another, or select companies in the industry will see the writing on the wall and adapt. Walmart, for example, is shifting their focus to in-store deliveries of products purchased online, and leverage their logistics to compete with Amazon's one or two day delivery. AOL bought media content, rights, and publishing houses. PC makers are now shifting gears and selling tablets, laptops, and servers. Storage device makers shifted to provide hard drives for data servers.

But most of these massive industries and corporations are but a shadow of their former selves. Technology is evolving at such a high pace that for the entire auto industry to ignore what electric propulsion can do as the future of mass and personal transportation would be for an entire industry to be left behind like RadioShack, BlockBusters, and Sears.

EV will do to the ICE what ICE did to the horse and buggy, except it will happen in a much faster pace. Mark my word.

[RABAUKE]

So my two cents. Lets assume that EV's are where we're going. There are lots of folks who won't be able to buy one for decades, they will continue to buy $500 beaters or $3000 used cars. What's government going to do, just stop the sale of gasoline? Governments sole purpose is to get re-elected, they won't force voters out of their cheap gas powered cars if that means getting voted out of office......they don't care more about the environment than they do about getting re-elected. Lets see how much global warming matters when push comes to shove at election time.