BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Today's Posts

Go Back   7Post - 7 Series Forum > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      03-13-2024, 02:49 PM   #8207
c1pher
Primo Generalissimo
c1pher's Avatar
United_States
4978
Rep
4,175
Posts

Drives: All of them
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: DC area

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Has anyone consider Vanguard's MGK ETF?
Appreciate 0
      03-13-2024, 04:12 PM   #8208
Chick Webb
Private First Class
United_States
1316
Rep
135
Posts

Drives: '10 E92, '17 540i, '21 X6 M50i
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by c1pher View Post
Has anyone consider Vanguard's MGK ETF?
No, but that's b/c I own all of the top 10 holdings, and some others, in that ETF. If I didn't, and wanted to jump on the Mega Cap bandwagon, that would be my choice. Though, I would have wanted to make it a couple of years ago; not sure how much legs some of those companies have left.

BTW, funny quote from Palantir CEO the other day after a big contract win announcement drove their stock up nearly 10% in a day:

Quote:
“I love burning the short sellers,” Karp told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on “Money Movers.” “Almost nothing makes a human happier than taking the lines of cocaine away from these short sellers, who like, are going short on a truly great American company. Not just ours, but just love pulling down great American companies so they can pay for their coke.”
I love that guy. And the stock.
Appreciate 1
c1pher4978.00
      03-14-2024, 07:40 AM   #8209
ASAP
Major General
ASAP's Avatar
10808
Rep
9,002
Posts

Drives: '23 X3 M40i
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: FL

iTrader: (0)

hell yea - wholesale inflation just keeps on going-

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/prod...-february.html
__________________
2 x N54 -> 1 x N55 -> 1 x S55-> 1 x B58
Appreciate 0
      03-14-2024, 07:59 AM   #8210
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Wholesale deflation keeps on going.

-1.2% LTM. Also known as deflation.

13 consecutive months of PPI deflation.

Prices are sinking (deflating) at the producer level on a year over year basis.

Iron ore
Aluminum
Natgas

All deflating.

Last edited by chassis; 03-14-2024 at 10:12 AM..
Appreciate 0
      03-14-2024, 02:39 PM   #8211
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
And WEI floating higher (good for everyone).
Appreciate 0
      03-14-2024, 04:37 PM   #8212
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
871
Rep
1,120
Posts

Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
Where you getting this from?

Cause
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/prod...-february.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
Wholesale deflation keeps on going.

-1.2% LTM. Also known as deflation.

13 consecutive months of PPI deflation.

Prices are sinking (deflating) at the producer level on a year over year basis.

Iron ore
Aluminum
Natgas

All deflating.
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 0
      03-14-2024, 04:41 PM   #8213
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
871
Rep
1,120
Posts

Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
Higher just the past week? Cause it was below the 13W average 4 of the past 6 weeks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
And WEI floating higher (good for everyone).
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 0
      03-14-2024, 05:43 PM   #8214
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
Higher just the past week? Cause it was below the 13W average 4 of the past 6 weeks.

1-, 5-, and 10-year charts look great. When in doubt, zoom out.
Appreciate 0
      03-14-2024, 05:44 PM   #8215
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
St. Louis Fed, aka FRED.

MSM not credible.
Appreciate 1
      03-14-2024, 06:14 PM   #8216
Our03z4
Captain
1768
Rep
694
Posts

Drives: 2008 BMW Z4 3.0si Coupe,
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: USA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
St. Louis Fed, aka FRED.

MSM not credible.
And they are? Just the way the FED started was borderline illegal. NEVER trust what the FED says, ever.

In his July 1832 veto message of the bill rechartering the Second Bank of the United States, President Andrew Jackson didn't hold back. Beyond characterizing the bank as hopelessly corrupt, he argued "the powers conferred upon [the bank were] ... not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and the country." He went on, warning that if it continued to operate, "great evils... might flow from such a concentration of power in the hands of a few men irresponsible to the people." He argued that its power would only grow, as its leaders could "put forth their strength to influence elections or control the affairs of the nation." For Jackson, vetoing the rechartering of the bank was necessary to prevent the "prostitution of our Government."

The way it came to be again in 1913 was corrupt.
Appreciate 1
TboneS541172.50
      03-15-2024, 10:24 AM   #8217
other_evolved
Lieutenant Colonel
other_evolved's Avatar
2073
Rep
1,894
Posts

Drives: 2015 Chevrolet SS
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Saint Louis

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Our03z4 View Post
And they are? Just the way the FED started was borderline illegal. NEVER trust what the FED says, ever.

In his July 1832 veto message of the bill rechartering the Second Bank of the United States, President Andrew Jackson didn't hold back. Beyond characterizing the bank as hopelessly corrupt, he argued "the powers conferred upon [the bank were] ... not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and the country." He went on, warning that if it continued to operate, "great evils... might flow from such a concentration of power in the hands of a few men irresponsible to the people." He argued that its power would only grow, as its leaders could "put forth their strength to influence elections or control the affairs of the nation." For Jackson, vetoing the rechartering of the bank was necessary to prevent the "prostitution of our Government."

The way it came to be again in 1913 was corrupt.
So then who is reputable in your opinion?
__________________
Present
2015 Chevrolet SS
2014 Jeep Cherokee Trailhawk V6
Appreciate 0
      03-15-2024, 12:54 PM   #8218
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
871
Rep
1,120
Posts

Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
All those time periods are useless today, especially the 5yr cause that's right before covid and the 3.5yr mess. Even 1 year has what 4 rate increases. The only period in the last 10 which maybe you could compare now to is Jan 2019-Dec 2019, after rate increases stopped and there was a few cuts. WEI in 2019 was much better than what we are seeing in 2024.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
1-, 5-, and 10-year charts look great. When in doubt, zoom out.
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 1
chassis7898.00
      03-20-2024, 09:07 AM   #8219
other_evolved
Lieutenant Colonel
other_evolved's Avatar
2073
Rep
1,894
Posts

Drives: 2015 Chevrolet SS
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Saint Louis

iTrader: (0)

Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate
__________________
Present
2015 Chevrolet SS
2014 Jeep Cherokee Trailhawk V6
Appreciate 1
ASAP10807.50
      03-20-2024, 01:10 PM   #8220
ASAP
Major General
ASAP's Avatar
10808
Rep
9,002
Posts

Drives: '23 X3 M40i
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: FL

iTrader: (0)

good old mr powell already panicking lol... or perhaps his handlers told him to do so

we are not ready for a rate cut at all... but the current govt debt load and commercial RE issues will force this... unfortunately to the detriment of common folk

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-...rch-2024-.html
__________________
2 x N54 -> 1 x N55 -> 1 x S55-> 1 x B58
Appreciate 0
      03-20-2024, 01:18 PM   #8221
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
871
Rep
1,120
Posts

Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
They are so F'd right now, unsure of true state of the economy, near promised rate cuts but wavering so much right now which is the reason the market has been volatile in March. There might not be a rate cut until June/July, and possibility being floated by the experts of no rate cuts this year.

Kinda believing the theory they won't do jack much before Nov, then no matter who wins, big rate cuts and oh look what I did.

Just renewed CDs other day 5.5% for 5 month, and 5.3% for 12 month. Those rates suggest few if any rate cuts this year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
good old mr powell already panicking lol... or perhaps his handlers told him to do so

we are not ready for a rate cut at all... but the current govt debt load and commercial RE issues will force this... unfortunately to the detriment of common folk

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-...rch-2024-.html
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 1
ASAP10807.50
      03-20-2024, 02:00 PM   #8222
ASAP
Major General
ASAP's Avatar
10808
Rep
9,002
Posts

Drives: '23 X3 M40i
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: FL

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
They are so F'd right now, unsure of true state of the economy, near promised rate cuts but wavering so much right now which is the reason the market has been volatile in March. There might not be a rate cut until June/July, and possibility being floated by the experts of no rate cuts this year.

Kinda believing the theory they won't do jack much before Nov, then no matter who wins, big rate cuts and oh look what I did.

Just renewed CDs other day 5.5% for 5 month, and 5.3% for 12 month. Those rates suggest few if any rate cuts this year.
i think they know exactly whats happening
and that is a stagflationary environment mixed w bad debt that was financed w low interest rates... no idea how you get out of that though... we still have inflation yet wages are falling except at the min wage level and companies are cutting left and right to boos profits... this is driving the market... i dont know any industries doing well in retail...

the plan is simple... keep things obfuscated until the election happens... then they will be forced to drop rates and we could see inflation skyrocket again
__________________
2 x N54 -> 1 x N55 -> 1 x S55-> 1 x B58
Appreciate 0
      03-20-2024, 04:25 PM   #8223
Chick Webb
Private First Class
United_States
1316
Rep
135
Posts

Drives: '10 E92, '17 540i, '21 X6 M50i
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: CA

iTrader: (0)

Nobody, but nobody (well, OK, maybe Trump), wants to use the S-word, especially in an election year. But that does seem to be where we are heading. And that is a pickle for the Fed. No good choices for getting out of it.
Appreciate 1
ASAP10807.50
      03-20-2024, 04:31 PM   #8224
medphysdave
Major General
medphysdave's Avatar
United_States
4870
Rep
5,015
Posts

Drives: M2 CS | 85 of 592
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Charlotte, NC

iTrader: (3)

Spending is at an all time high, but so is consumer debt. People are maxing out credit cards to live that tiktok life. This is all going to burst in an epic bubble. If you've got a good job and been saving a bit it'll be amazing. Terrible for most though.

COVID helped companies reorganize. The strong survived. Those that managed to be profitable during that time by quickly pivoting are likely making a mint right now. Helping to cover up the broader issues.
Appreciate 1
ASAP10807.50
      03-20-2024, 04:35 PM   #8225
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP View Post
good old mr powell already panicking lol... or perhaps his handlers told him to do so

we are not ready for a rate cut at all... but the current govt debt load and commercial RE issues will force this... unfortunately to the detriment of common folk

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-...rch-2024-.html

You need to be more specific on CRE. Some sectors are hot.

Restating for the record: MSM not credible.
Appreciate 0
      03-20-2024, 04:36 PM   #8226
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
They are so F'd right now, unsure of true state of the economy, near promised rate cuts but wavering so much right now which is the reason the market has been volatile in March. There might not be a rate cut until June/July, and possibility being floated by the experts of no rate cuts this year.

Kinda believing the theory they won't do jack much before Nov, then no matter who wins, big rate cuts and oh look what I did.

Just renewed CDs other day 5.5% for 5 month, and 5.3% for 12 month. Those rates suggest few if any rate cuts this year.
What is the true state of the economy?
Appreciate 0
      03-21-2024, 02:42 PM   #8227
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
871
Rep
1,120
Posts

Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis View Post
What is the true state of the economy?
Somewhere between good and bad, the true state of the economy is kinda unmeasurable right now.

It's being fueled by those still doing well, debt, and the government. But it's not sustainable.

Inflation is still outpacing wage growth. Excess immigration is big factor in keeping wages down for non-degree jobs. Opportunities for college graduates keep dropping, any current job growth is in the non degree sectors.

Inflation and shrinkflation is still a problem which the government still can not accurately measure.

More people are getting 2nd jobs to cover expenses and those previously with multiple jobs are struggling where it might of been enough before. Eventually they will run out of debt to cover.

Defaults on consumer debt are increasing and the potential to get out of control could be on the horizon.

Over 50% of adult children in 20s or 30s receive some financial support from their parents. Over 50% of young adults 18-29 are still living at home. Both of these are eating into their parents savings which will hurt them down the road. Which is also the driver why many adults 65+ are still working.

The struggles of Z, Millennial, whatever are real. In my neighborhood there are more 20 something kids living with their parents than those who have moved out. Of my friends over half of them provide support to kids who graduated college or working without a degree. Student debt and housing costs are a big factor young people struggle with, also their financial dysmorphia that they think they should have all the nice things and a high paying job out the gate.

Yet magically the market is still doing well, profits are being maintained or growing, driven by job cuts or taking advantage of inflation.

Perhaps things won't get bad but it's hard to predict as there are so many ticking time bombs we are sitting on.
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 1
TboneS541172.50
      03-21-2024, 03:26 PM   #8228
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
7898
Rep
2,485
Posts

Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
No data links from non-MSM sources. Not terribly convincing.
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:39 PM.




7post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST