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      11-10-2017, 02:31 AM   #1
GrussGott
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The Future Is Here!

Our innovative automotive future - THE FUTURE IS HERE!
Las Vegas’ first driverless shuttle hit the streets on Wednesday and was promptly hit by a truck ... which KSNV-TV reported occurred within the first hour of the shuttle’s operation.

Passengers onboard the vehicle confirmed that the shuttle did stop ― but in the path of the truck.

“The shuttle just stayed still and we were like, ‘Oh my gosh, it’s gonna hit us, it’s gonna hit us!’ and then, it hit us!” passenger Jenny Wong told KSNV. “And the shuttle didn’t have the ability to move back, either. Like, the shuttle just stayed still.”


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I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
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      11-10-2017, 02:36 AM   #2
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Man, I know I'm on the wrong forum to be advocating for self driving & electric cars.

But in all fairness, the driverless car was not at fault.

Full article here: https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...nomous-vehicle

Google has already said one of the hardest things about programming autonomous vehicles is getting them to react to human behaviour on the roads.

eg. A car that waits legally behind the line will never get around some intersections, you need to teach it to illegally 'edge' forwards so other drivers yield in peak hour traffic.

It's early days, we shouldn't expect it to be perfect. Teaching a car to break its road rules to avoid other drivers f*ckups is probably going to be the _last_ thing they master.

Here's the baseline we should keep in mind: The death rate per 100 million miles traveled in 2015 ranged from 0.52 in Massachusetts to 1.89 in South Carolina.

Autonomous vehicles are allowed to kill 1 person per 200 million miles travelled. This bus did far less than 200 million miles, but google has done more than 2 million miles in total. We're still at 0 fatalities (as we should be).
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Last edited by xQx; 11-10-2017 at 02:46 AM.
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      11-10-2017, 10:56 AM   #3
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The numbers are all meaningless, i will never understand intelligent people clinging to broad figures.

No one cares about the other 40,000 people that died in road crashes, all that matters is that i'd have had the sense to back the fuck up and if that was a larger vehicle we could be talking serious injury.

The whole idea is flawed and the technology remains a million miles from where it needs to be.
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      11-10-2017, 11:20 AM   #4
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Sometimes I wonder - who are the people in charge of programming these machines to deal with real traffic situations?
They may as well be brilliant computer geniuses... but are they also skilled drivers with years of real life driving experience and relevant training?
Somehow I doubt that...
Everyone knows you have to drive a certain way to pass your test and get your license... unfortunately that has little to do with skills required to be safe in real traffic...
I think this is a problem with self-driving cars.

Last edited by vinylengraver; 11-10-2017 at 11:28 AM.
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      11-12-2017, 11:01 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xQx View Post
Man, I know I'm on the wrong forum to be advocating for self driving & electric cars.

But in all fairness, the driverless car was not at fault.

Full article here: https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...nomous-vehicle

Google has already said one of the hardest things about programming autonomous vehicles is getting them to react to human behaviour on the roads.

eg. A car that waits legally behind the line will never get around some intersections, you need to teach it to illegally 'edge' forwards so other drivers yield in peak hour traffic.

It's early days, we shouldn't expect it to be perfect. Teaching a car to break its road rules to avoid other drivers f*ckups is probably going to be the _last_ thing they master.

Here's the baseline we should keep in mind: The death rate per 100 million miles traveled in 2015 ranged from 0.52 in Massachusetts to 1.89 in South Carolina.

Autonomous vehicles are allowed to kill 1 person per 200 million miles travelled. This bus did far less than 200 million miles, but google has done more than 2 million miles in total. We're still at 0 fatalities (as we should be).
"Here's your sign."
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      11-14-2017, 03:16 AM   #6
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      11-14-2017, 12:36 PM   #7
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Meh. I’m not ready to give up control either, but this was minor. Somebody backed into the car and “grazed the front fender,” not really the cars fault. Had this happen to me once from the front and twice from behind, it’s the oblivious drivers that are the problem
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      11-14-2017, 02:05 PM   #8
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Do you see the Elite running around in such contraptions? No. They will still be driving Bugattis, Paghanis, Ferraris, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghinis while the little people have self-driving contraptions forced upon them. Where is the free market demand for autonomous EVs coming from? That's right there isn't any.
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      11-14-2017, 02:33 PM   #9
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Drive your own damned car!!!
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      11-14-2017, 05:57 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrFerry View Post
Do you see the Elite running around in such contraptions? No. They will still be driving Bugattis, Paghanis, Ferraris, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghinis while the little people have self-driving contraptions forced upon them. Where is the free market demand for autonomous EVs coming from? That's right there isn't any.
To answer your question: the current demand for autonomous electric cars is equal to the total revenue of the uber, Lyft & taxi industry. Once autonomous EV reaches a level where it works safely, Having a driver in a taxi is as necessary as having a lift operator in an elevator.

the expected demand is roughly equivalent to the total market share of entry level cars (Mazda 3's and the like), because once the average person can get a driverless taxi as cheaply and easily as a Manhattan resident can get a taxi today, people will use them instead of owning a car.

2 car families will become 1 car families. Working class people without kids will use pay-for-use private transport.

Car enthusiasts, special needs users (eg. 7 seaters, disabled etc.) and the wealthy will still own cars. Inner City multilevel carparks will be demolished to make way for more apartments or office buildings, because cars will be able to drive themselves out of the city to get a park.

Drink driving will become a thing of the past.
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      11-14-2017, 08:00 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrFerry View Post
Do you see the Elite running around in such contraptions? No. They will still be driving Bugattis, Paghanis, Ferraris, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghinis while the little people have self-driving contraptions forced upon them. Where is the free market demand for autonomous EVs coming from? That's right there isn't any.
When their lyft costs half as much as it does today, I bet people will be interested
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      11-20-2017, 05:23 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xQx View Post
To answer your question: the current demand for autonomous electric cars is equal to the total revenue of the uber, Lyft & taxi industry. Once autonomous EV reaches a level where it works safely, Having a driver in a taxi is as necessary as having a lift operator in an elevator.

the expected demand is roughly equivalent to the total market share of entry level cars (Mazda 3's and the like), because once the average person can get a driverless taxi as cheaply and easily as a Manhattan resident can get a taxi today, people will use them instead of owning a car.

2 car families will become 1 car families. Working class people without kids will use pay-for-use private transport.

Car enthusiasts, special needs users (eg. 7 seaters, disabled etc.) and the wealthy will still own cars. Inner City multilevel carparks will be demolished to make way for more apartments or office buildings, because cars will be able to drive themselves out of the city to get a park.

Drink driving will become a thing of the past.
Well written response, but sorry I don't buy the Cool-Aid. What your describing is NOT the current "demand" for autonomous electric cars, but rather the postulated hyperbole narrative based upon consultant's calculated hypothetical data.

I've been to the conventions and sat at the table with Silicon valley professors and even participated in the workshops. There are so many holes in their economic models that are easy to see through (if you have eyes to see). Just the 5G network and infrastructure rework alone are major obstacles, without even mentioning the tax payers will be asked to pay for the infrastructure and network upgrades.

Oh, and did they tell you about the health effects of 5G? I thought not. Like I said, I don't buy it. It's a bunch of utopian world view hype in my opinion. I just don't agree with either the postulated economic models, the maturity of America's infrastructure, the supposed adoption rate, nor the safety of the technology. Even air planes have Pilots and a CoPilot - yet airplanes also have Auto-Pilot. The Elite will remove your (Americans) right to travel free and unmolested on the land by outlawing traditional driving for the little people. You will be the Guinea Pigs in their grand experiment.
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      11-20-2017, 06:57 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xQx View Post
Once autonomous EV reaches a level where it works safely, Having a driver in a taxi is as necessary as having a lift operator in an elevator.
Comparing elevator (lift) operation to automobile operation is like comparing a can opener to a space shuttle.

I'm not a luddite but let's be realistic; the damned thing should have backed up. It didn't. Test failed.
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      11-20-2017, 10:30 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrFerry View Post
Well written response, but sorry I don't buy the Cool-Aid. What your describing is NOT the current "demand" for autonomous electric cars, but rather the postulated hyperbole narrative based upon consultant's calculated hypothetical data.

I've been to the conventions and sat at the table with Silicon valley professors and even participated in the workshops. There are so many holes in their economic models that are easy to see through (if you have eyes to see). Just the 5G network and infrastructure rework alone are major obstacles, without even mentioning the tax payers will be asked to pay for the infrastructure and network upgrades.

Oh, and did they tell you about the health effects of 5G? I thought not. Like I said, I don't buy it. It's a bunch of utopian world view hype in my opinion. I just don't agree with either the postulated economic models, the maturity of America's infrastructure, the supposed adoption rate, nor the safety of the technology. Even air planes have Pilots and a CoPilot - yet airplanes also have Auto-Pilot. The Elite will remove your (Americans) right to travel free and unmolested on the land by outlawing traditional driving for the little people. You will be the Guinea Pigs in their grand experiment.
A well written response. I'm in the air traffic surveillance business and work with the DOT on a daily basis on the FAA's NextGen initiative. It is my well informed opinion that the DOT will take decades just to draft the rules and standards for autonomous driving. Additionally, the cost to truly develop a fail-safe system to lessen the accident death rate below what it is currently will take an enormous amount of funding that right now is used for more humanitarian purposes (which is a growing part of the federal budget). As the system is developed and autonomous crashes begin killing passengers in both autonomous cars and human-driven cars, the solution will not be more and better technology but rather less cars on the roads moving at a far less average speed. The result will be government power over citizens ability to freely move about the country at their own will. Uber, Lyft, et.al. allow this unabated movement of citizens. Government controlled autonomous pods will not. To equate the autonomous pod transporting people to that what is now the Uber-type service is a false economic/market analogy.
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      11-20-2017, 11:10 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfisti View Post
The numbers are all meaningless, i will never understand intelligent people clinging to broad figures.

No one cares about the other 40,000 people that died in road crashes, all that matters is that i'd have had the sense to back the fuck up and if that was a larger vehicle we could be talking serious injury.

The whole idea is flawed and the technology remains a million miles from where it needs to be.
I don't think completely hands-off driverless cars should ever be a thing. The farthest we should go is a car that CAN do everything for you, but requires your attention at all times while the car is in motion to take over should an unforeseen circumstance arise... like some other car backing in to you... or a giant city destroying lizard is straight ahead and you want to turn the car around and book it.
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      11-21-2017, 03:25 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xQx View Post
To answer your question: the current demand for autonomous electric cars is equal to the total revenue of the uber, Lyft & taxi industry. Once autonomous EV reaches a level where it works safely, Having a driver in a taxi is as necessary as having a lift operator in an elevator.
Well, I just did European Delivery and part of it is they have a Sixt driver pick you up at the Munich Airport. This is actually our 2nd ED with that Sixt service, but this time we decided to stay in Munich for a few days so we asked the driver if it was possible to hire him ... turns out Sixt has Lyft-like service called MyDriver with a similar app.

The wallet doesn't like it, but we used MyDriver about 10 times to get around Munich. There was something so awesome about walking around all day on tours and then having essentially a small limo waiting for you: the driver standing there with the door open, takes your bags, and there are beverages / treats waiting in the back.

And it really wasn't that expensive relatively speaking, like 30ish euro or 50ish if you want a business van or full size luxury car (i.e., 7 series or S class)

And it's coming to the US soon.

So my point in all of this is, while I can see a lyft-autonomous car future, I think it's a long LONG way out and we're much more apt to see MyDriver in Teslas.

Because if they get that in the US I would use it at least once a week and definitely for anything travel related.

In the meantime here's a cool pic I took one day almost by accident (by the Goog campus): I was trying to shoot the autonomous Waymo car across the intersection but another one came by right as I clicked the shutter:



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Originally Posted by vinylengraver View Post
Sometimes I wonder - who are the people in charge of programming these machines to deal with real traffic situations?
... are they also skilled drivers with years of real life driving experience and relevant training?
Well I snapped this about 1 mile from the Google campus by the Mountain View public library. It's some kind of electric trike thing, if that tells you anything

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