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      11-12-2017, 06:17 PM   #23
JamesNoBrakes
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Originally Posted by RABAUKE View Post
I frankly think that hybrids are a more likely solution for the next 20-50 years as they solve problems on both sides of the argument.
Hybrids are an amazing development for the highest levels of performance at this time, being able to capture some of your braking energy and using it to slingshot you during the next straight-away is a huge advantage, and as it continues to improve, it will continue to leap-frog the next car that doesn't have it.

I think people tend to see this far too myopic, as if all of a sudden a switch is supposed to be thrown in 5 years and everyone and everything will be electric. There are many advantages to using our resources smartly, such as being able to profit more off selling oil to other countries, more oil and fuel for our military and their vehicles, and so on. I know of plenty of installations and campuses(business, government, etc.) where they use EVs exclusively to get around and do maintenance. But none of this means that in 5 years everyone is going to be driving an EV. There are certain markets where it will take a long time, or where we don't see any viable solution in the foreseeable future. A family that commutes to work and runs all over the city and occasionally to the countryside will be fine, but the guy driving 300 miles across the country each day? Maybe take a little longer before that makes sense. And then there's the big rig trucks and other industrial equipment. Interestingly, much of this is hybrid, to get the torque and mechanical advantages of electric, but to get it off fossil fuels completely will take a long time, maybe the 20-40 years you suggest. I would offer though that we are seeing EVs now out there on the road working for people, something that 10-20 years ago was pretty far-fetched. This will only increase, maybe not fast, but they'll be commonplace as we move forward. Hybrids make a lot of sense for many situations, but also bring up some disadvantages too. I think we'll see a slow movement towards both, then slow replacement of remaining hybrids with EVs far in the future. I don't think that we'll see any movement towards hybrids without a decent percentage of the vehicles sold being EVs, as EVs are just too practical for many situations and people and again, without "flipping a switch", it's unlikely to place an unreasonable burden on "the grid", as it grows to adapt to the future needs.
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      11-12-2017, 09:43 PM   #24
Efthreeoh
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Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
For a large number of drivers, it doesn't have to equal it, it just has to be at a practical level, which it has gotten to with the Model S and the other Teslas. I would argue that the Nissan Leafs and other similar vehicles constrain a far smaller cross-section of potential buyers, but at the Model S ranges, it is practical enough for quite a variety of drivers. There are other solutions too, like switching batteries and so on. Technology is moving forward, taking some people kicking and screaming. I may have just invested in a V8 monster , but this technology is moving forward and it is practical for many people right now, it will only continue to improve.
Yet BEVs are barely over 1% market share. It's not equal, EVs are range-limited regardless of DC fast charging or Tesla super charging. There is one battery-swapping location for Tesla in California two years after Musk unveiled it. The market likes to have unlimited range ICE power and is willing to pay for it, especially when it comes at not cost penalty.

I'd love to have an EV for my commute. The Bolt fits the bill in all but Winter range capability and body style; I can live with the exterior in black, but the interior styling is not to my taste. I'm hoping GM will see fit to build a sports sedan off the bolt chassis. If I was Mary Barra, that's where I'd spending company resources at the moment. I've driven the Bolt and Volt (Gen 1) and really enjoyed both. GM has the chassis engineers at Cadillac to make a great handling car, it is no longer a mystery to GM. The problem is there is no market share worthy of the investment.

People are just to used to 5 minute, 400+mile range refueling stops. EVs just don't offer a better solution to what is already available. I think an EV with a 600 mile range and 6 - 10 hour refueling stop would be equivalent in the eyes of most consumers.
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