View Single Post
      07-12-2018, 12:43 PM   #2
Viffermike
Colonel
Viffermike's Avatar
United_States
1753
Rep
2,942
Posts

Drives: '18 black-n-blue 718 Cayman
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Big D

iTrader: (0)

Seba works for rethinkX, an 'independent' think tank that focuses on alternative energy futures -- ergo, it's not 'independent'. It very much has a social and political agenda behind it.

Here's a blog piece that breaks down rethinkX's prediction that personal vehicle usage will dwindle to 44 million by 2030, which is not likely. (It will probably dwindle, but not to this scale.) This article links to another rethinkX analysis regarding oil consumption. (Note: The blog is written by an investor, which helps regarding an objective analysis. Dude's trying to figure out where to put his money, you know?)

Here's a Business Wire PR release on rethinkX's findings regarding the future of electric and autonomous vehicles. It's far, far, far too aggressive and doesn't consider many of the points I (and others) have made regarding the roadblocks to those vehicles' adoption: insurance, liability, consumer confidence, socioeconomic accessibility, lack of utility for rural/commercial use, etc.

Will such vehicles replace ICE and self-operated cars in urban areas in 12 years? Yes, to an extent -- but not to rethinkX's wishful extent. The organization exists to push that change forward by exaggerating the (to use its own tag word) 'disruption' to news-triggering levels -- and, throughout modern history, many similar organizations have existed to push change forward similarly, but almost all have been far off their own established mark once time frames have played out.

Post this again when presentations like this don't occur in techie hotbeds like Boulder or Silicon Valley. (Birds of a feather ... ) Then we'll talk.
__________________
--Life is a journey made more exciting with a fast car.--
--Helmets are for closers.--
<<Current: "Blackened" '18 NBM Porsche 718 Cayman ... Gone (but not forgotten): "Blackened" MG '15 228i M Sport w/aFe filter/scoop, Hertz drivers, P3Cars multigauge, other goodies>>
Appreciate 3
mkoesel7505.50
2000cs3443.50
eluded2959.00