The BMW i7 & AMG EQS driven until they die [Carwow]

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by hinckley

With all due respect, I (and many here, I'm sure) also work in tech. As a matter of fact, I've been in new tech for over 30 years, starting back in the days when we called it "the 128 corridor." So your easy dismissal of people who disagree with you shows a bit of, err . . . intellectual laziness?

I have no doubt that EVs are the future, but I've watched disruptive tech evolved for decades, and I know that it takes turns we can't even imagine today. There are over 2m cars in NYC, 5m in Mexico City, 7m in Rio. It's easy to ignore those inconvenient truths while sitting in suburban Boston or LA with a charger in your two-car garage.

This is a complicated problem. And complicated problems have complicated solutions. And you're starting from waaaay behind with blithe dismissals of those who challenge your perspective.

And for god's sake, please don't be one of those followers using "AI" to describe every next-gen algorithm. Again, it's more complicated than that.

All of those cars you mentioned will be out of service 15 years from now. Leaves another 12 years. If you have in fact been in IT for 30 years, you should appreciate the pace of change - particularly in the last 10. The irony is you mention that tech “takes turns we can’t even imagine” yet you summarily dismiss me for projecting that in a whopping 27 years things will likely be vastly different than they are now.
End of the day, we will just have to wait and find out, but I’m definitely not staking on ICE vehicles being anywhere near the predominate mode of transport in three decades.
Not sure what you are trying to imply about my AI statement. I get it, you’ve been around the block and have “seen it all”. Fact is that AI has grown leaps and bounds and when we talk about “AI”, we are talking about human+ level intelligence, which has absolutely not been in play until recently.

And by the way, to the infrastructure piece - Tesla already has a reliable global infrastructure that has three 9s of availability (and high quality of service), so the idea that we have “a long way to go” isn’t accurate. For the small subset of users who regularly need fast-charging, they can buy a Tesla which has a fully mature infrastructure in place.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by hinckley

With all due respect, I (and many here, I'm sure) also work in tech. As a matter of fact, I've been in new tech for over 30 years, starting back in the days when we called it "the 128 corridor." So your easy dismissal of people who disagree with you shows a bit of, err . . . intellectual laziness?

I have no doubt that EVs are the future, but I've watched disruptive tech evolved for decades, and I know that it takes turns we can't even imagine today. There are over 2m cars in NYC, 5m in Mexico City, 7m in Rio. It's easy to ignore those inconvenient truths while sitting in suburban Boston or LA with a charger in your two-car garage.

This is a complicated problem. And complicated problems have complicated solutions. And you're starting from waaaay behind with blithe dismissals of those who challenge your perspective.

And for god's sake, please don't be one of those followers using "AI" to describe every next-gen algorithm. Again, it's more complicated than that.

Well stated!

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by jmack123

And by the way, to the infrastructure piece - Tesla already has a reliable global infrastructure that has three 9s of availability (and high quality of service), so the idea that we have “a long way to go” isn’t accurate. For the small subset of users who regularly need fast-charging, they can buy a Tesla which has a fully mature infrastructure in place.

Tesla isn’t the end all, be all of the EV agenda. Infrastructure is more than just Tesla’s charging stations, and not everybody can/will own Tesla’s. We DO have a long way to go because our electrical grid infrastructure isn’t nearly where it needs to be for everybody to drive EV’s. You are very myopic [and dismissive] in your perspective. You’re idealistic rather than realistic.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

Tesla isn’t the end all, be all of the EV agenda. Infrastructure is more than just Tesla’s charging stations, and not everybody can/will own Tesla’s. We DO have a long way to go because our electrical grid infrastructure isn’t nearly where it needs to be for everybody to drive EV’s. You are very myopic [and dismissive] in your perspective. You’re idealistic rather than realistic.

With all due respect, I’d disagree - I think I’m being the realistic one. Again, 99% of charging is done at home - thus charging infra is not nearly as significant a need as many (non-EV drivers in particular) make it out to be. For the 5% of drivers who need regular fast charging, Tesla is an incredibly viable and mature option.

In terms of infrastructure to support everyone driving EVs, that will obviously have to scale to accommodate. But at the end of the day, EVs are literally three times more efficient (at a minimum) than comparable ICE vehicles and energy is energy. This is physics. Therefore, pound for pound, EVs use less energy at a macro level, so the idea we will struggle to find the energy to power these things is not in keeping with reality.

Even if the grid supporting EVs is 100% petroleum (which it will be increasingly resilient based on increased redundancy provided by alternative energy sources), it will use far less of said petroleum than the 100% ICE model we have used for the last century.

[brava09]

[QUOTE=jmack123;30195216]With all due respect, I’d disagree - I think I’m being the realistic one. Again, 99% of charging is done at home - thus charging infra is not nearly as significant a need as many (non-EV drivers in particular) make it out to be. For the 5% of drivers who need regular fast charging, Tesla is an incredibly viable and mature option.


You are not realistic if you believe 99% of charging is done at home. In Europe congested cities where most of people lives in apartment buildings with the cars parked on streets, home charging is and will be impossible for them.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by brava09

You are not realistic if you believe 99% of charging is done at home. In Europe congested cities where most of people lives in apartment buildings with the cars parked on streets, home charging is and will be impossible for them.

Ask any european about their charging access (fast and non-fast-home charging) and get back to me. You must not know about EV adoption in Europe.
Let me help you out:
https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/new-re...st%201%20year.

1 out of every 5 passenger vehicle in Europe is an EV. Another 19% are plug-in hybrid vehicles. So in total, nearly 40% of vehicles in Europe gave to be charged and they are getting along just fine. You are proving my point for me.

[hinckley]

Originally Posted by jmack123

All of those cars you mentioned will be out of service 15 years from now. Leaves another 12 years. If you have in fact been in IT for 30 years, you should appreciate the pace of change - particularly in the last 10. The irony is you mention that tech “takes turns we can’t even imagine” yet you summarily dismiss me for projecting that in a whopping 27 years things will likely be vastly different than they are now.
End of the day, we will just have to wait and find out, but I’m definitely not staking on ICE vehicles being anywhere near the predominate mode of transport in three decades.

And by the way, to the infrastructure piece - Tesla already has a reliable global infrastructure that has three 9s of availability (and high quality of service), so the idea that we have “a long way to go” isn’t accurate. For the small subset of users who regularly need fast-charging, they can buy a Tesla which has a fully mature infrastructure in place.

Your perspective is that of a North American or European suburbanite and somehow, you extrapolate that to global dimensions. Tesla does not have a "global infrastructure." Just check out the US midwest or south. And on a "global" basis, 97.8% of cars on the road today are ICE vehicles. So ya, there's a long way to go "globally". One of the things I've learned in over 30 years of new tech is that experiences in wealthy, homogenous societies like Norway do not extrapolate globally.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by hinckley

Your perspective is that of a North American or European suburbanite and somehow, you extrapolate that to global dimensions. Tesla does not have a "global infrastructure." Just check out the US midwest or south. And on a "global" basis, 97.8% of cars on the road today are ICE vehicles. So ya, there's a long way to go "globally". One of the things I've learned in over 30 years of new tech is that experiences in wealthy, homogenous societies like Norway do not extrapolate globally.

I get it - it’s trendy to rag on suburbanites/urbanites. The reality is that a huge part of the reason for a lack of infrastructure in the south in particular is because of the partisan politics. That will eventually change as the old guard are pushed out and/or retire.
I completely agree to your point around extrapolating homogeneous European populations to us. The reality is I don’t need to do that.
Throughout the U.S. (where politicians in the pockets of oil companies don’t prevail), there is an already established mature model of EV charging infrastructure (i.e. Tesla) and many new players coming into the fold (namely Kempower - who are well known for producing quality and reilable products). Again, even in rural areas, charging at home is going to be by far the most common method. Not sure why you think folks in rural areas are going to be driving farther than suburbanites/urbanites. As a matter of fact, they probably drive less as they aren’t commuting longer distances into a city center.

[AlteBMW]

Originally Posted by jmack123

With all due respect, I’d disagree - I think I’m being the realistic one. Again, 99% of charging is done at home - thus charging infra is not nearly as significant a need as many (non-EV drivers in particular) make it out to be. For the 5% of drivers who need regular fast charging, Tesla is an incredibly viable and mature option.

In terms of infrastructure to support everyone driving EVs, that will obviously have to scale to accommodate. But at the end of the day, EVs are literally three times more efficient (at a minimum) than comparable ICE vehicles and energy is energy. This is physics. Therefore, pound for pound, EVs use less energy at a macro level, so the idea we will struggle to find the energy to power these things is not in keeping with reality.

Even if the grid supporting EVs is 100% petroleum (which it will be increasingly resilient based on increased redundancy provided by alternative energy sources), it will use far less of said petroleum than the 100% ICE model we have used for the last century.

Re the bulk of charging at home, the system now is geared to suburbanites. Where is the infrastructure going to come from and where will it be placed for people in cities in apartment buildings? How about old apartment buildings in older sections of most cities? Or brownstones like here in New York? You can't run an extension cord out the window on to the street where your car is parked. As for even house dwellers, we need a nationwide electrical system upgrade to handle level 2 and higher chargers and/or battery technology that allows 120v fast charging. Then there are rural areas where people drive several hours to go to the movies or go shopping and they are nowhere near an Interstate or other main road with rest areas and space for chargers. The infrastructure needed fully to support a changeover to EVs goes way beyond chargers on the Interstates.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by AlteBMW

Re the bulk of charging at home, the system now is geared to suburbanites. Where is the infrastructure going to come from and where will it be placed for people in cities in apartment buildings? How about old apartment buildings in older sections of most cities? Or brownstones like here in New York? You can't run an extension cord out the window on to the street where your car is parked. As for even house dwellers, we need a nationwide electrical system upgrade to handle level 2 and higher chargers and/or battery technology that allows 120v fast charging. Then there are rural areas where people drive several hours to go to the movies or go shopping and they are nowhere near an Interstate or other main road with rest areas and space for chargers. The infrastructure needed fully to support a changeover to EVs goes way beyond chargers on the Interstates.

It’ll come from inductive charging embedded in parking along the street. Like so:
https://youtu.be/AE1gaNO9nj0

All the things you mentioned (e.g. we need to develop the nationwide infrastructure to do xyz) were the same things people said were impossible when ICE vehicles first came about.

I think the ultimate issue here is that the proposition was that we wouldn’t have massively adopted EVs by 2050. That’s a LONG time away. All these issues are relatively easily sorted (if you don’t think so, look at how many supposed impossible issues Tesla has sorted in just 10 years). There will obviously also be a ramp up in adoption. I agree, mandating full adoption by 2030 is nonesense and unrealistic. Let the market dictate and drive the organic ramp up. But don’t be mistaken, the ramp up is occurring actively now. If you don’t believe me, go look at how many Tesla’s you see on the road.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by jmack123

It’ll come from inductive charging embedded in parking along the street. Like so:
https://youtu.be/AE1gaNO9nj0

All the things you mentioned (e.g. we need to develop the nationwide infrastructure to do xyz) were the same things people said were impossible when ICE vehicles first came about.

I think the ultimate issue here is that the proposition was that we wouldn’t have massively adopted EVs by 2050. That’s a LONG time away. All these issues are relatively easily sorted (if you don’t think so, look at how many supposed impossible issues Tesla has sorted in just 10 years). There will obviously also be a ramp up in adoption. I agree, mandating full adoption by 2030 is nonesense and unrealistic. Let the market dictate and drive the organic ramp up. But don’t be mistaken, the ramp up is occurring actively now. If you don’t believe me, go look at how many Tesla’s you see on the road.

You only see Tesla’s on the road in major metro areas. The moment you get out of those areas you don’t see many/any Tesla’s at all. Hell, I was in Grand Rapids, Michigan for an entire week and I saw ONE Tesla.

[adc]

Originally Posted by AlteBMW

Re the bulk of charging at home, the system now is geared to suburbanites. Where is the infrastructure going to come from and where will it be placed for people in cities in apartment buildings? How about old apartment buildings in older sections of most cities? Or brownstones like here in New York? You can't run an extension cord out the window on to the street where your car is parked. As for even house dwellers, we need a nationwide electrical system upgrade to handle level 2 and higher chargers and/or battery technology that allows 120v fast charging. Then there are rural areas where people drive several hours to go to the movies or go shopping and they are nowhere near an Interstate or other main road with rest areas and space for chargers. The infrastructure needed fully to support a changeover to EVs goes way beyond chargers on the Interstates.

I believe London is experimenting with charge ports installed in street lamp posts. In that scenario the cord only reaches a couple of yards maybe and doesn’t cross the sidewalk.

There is also inductive charging, now in its infancy, but who knows.

Rural areas are far more likely to charge at home, why would they do it anywhere else? Condominium arrangements can install their own chargers on the property.

While some areas of the US have a very unreliable power grid - CA and NY i think were mentioned, other areas are absolutely fine. We shouldn’t generalize.

So while there isn’t a single solution that fits everywhere, there are multitudes of solutions which can be engineered to drive adoption to the 60-70-80% range by 2050, at least in countries which can reliably produce electricity. That would be a massive shift, and at least to my eyes, a worthwhile one.

The world developed an infrastructure to mine petroleum, refine it, transport it vast distances, store it, and distribute it in hundreds of thousands of distribution points. Why couldn’t that apply to running extra power cables? Why do we assume that 25 years from now it will still take 30 min to charge up an EV? What if the time is 5 min? 3 min? That, along with a reasonable range of say 300-400 miles could mean the current distribution model could be kept.

Will it happen in poor or developing countries? That is a big question indeed.
How about heavy transport on land/water/air? Big unknowns at this time.

[AlteBMW]

Originally Posted by adc

I believe London is experimenting with charge ports installed in street lamp posts. In that scenario the cord only reaches a couple of yards maybe and doesn’t cross the sidewalk.

There is also inductive charging, now in its infancy, but who knows.

Rural areas are far more likely to charge at home, why would they do it anywhere else? Condominium arrangements can install their own chargers on the property.

While some areas of the US have a very unreliable power grid - CA and NY i think were mentioned, other areas are absolutely fine. We shouldn’t generalize.

So while there isn’t a single solution that fits everywhere, there are multitudes of solutions which can be engineered to drive adoption to the 60-70-80% range by 2050, at least in countries which can reliably produce electricity. That would be a massive shift, and at least to my eyes, a worthwhile one.

The world developed an infrastructure to mine petroleum, refine it, transport it vast distances, store it, and distribute it in hundreds of thousands of distribution points. Why couldn’t that apply to running extra power cables? Why do we assume that 25 years from now it will still take 30 min to charge up an EV? What if the time is 5 min? 3 min? That, along with a reasonable range of say 300-400 miles could mean the current distribution model could be kept.

Will it happen in poor or developing countries? That is a big question indeed.
How about heavy transport on land/water/air? Big unknowns at this time.

Thanks. I do agree that 60-80% adoption by 2050 is achievable. I was just trying to catalog what needs to be done to get there. There is a need for change in long distance trucks and, for that matter, cargo ships too.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

You only see Tesla’s on the road in major metro areas. The moment you get out of those areas you don’t see many/any Tesla’s at all. Hell, I was in Grand Rapids, Michigan for an entire week and I saw ONE Tesla.

And you think this will be the case for the next 27 years? Let’s be serious here.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by AlteBMW

Thanks. I do agree that 60-80% adoption by 2050 is achievable. I was just trying to catalog what needs to be done to get there. There is a need for change in long distance trucks and, for that matter, cargo ships too.

I would agree that 60-80% adoption in 2050 is what I would anticipate as well, and would be realistic.

I think the big problem as highlighted the the OP is that a lot of people are operating under today’s paradigms, when through the next 2-3 decades, nearly all the paradigms around consumer transportation will shift dramatically. E.g. thirty years from now it obviously won’t take 30 mins to charge, and the infrastructure will obviously be far more robust.

[Sedan_Clan]

Originally Posted by jmack123

And you think this will be the case for the next 27 years? Let’s be serious here.

You are inclined to lean toward massive adoption and I’m telling you that will not happen.

[jmack123]

Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan

You are inclined to lean toward massive adoption and I’m telling you that will not happen.

We’ll see 😉

[Bimmerfun82]

Originally Posted by kjx

Lots of copium here and does not reflect reality.

We had a Tesla Model Y and my BMW X5 45e start at 6 PM from a location for a roughly 6 hour drive home. Here's the difference:
- I could consistenly do 90 mph+ on the open road. The Model Y couldn't as the range reduction was substantial when going over 65-70 mph.
- Same story going uphill - lots of range reduction on the Model Y while I could go up as fast as the conditions allowed.
- I didn't have to stop for a full charge a little before midnight in an isolated charging station.
- I reached home an entire 2-2.5 hours before the Model Y with a ton of gas remaining in the car. I arrived roughly around 1 AM, and went to sleep and they arrived around 3-3:30 AM.

It's a huge difference and the Model Y was honestly a drag on keeping pace while going in the opposite direction. Had to stop with them, etc. Decided to split on the way back because of this.

We have a 3 row X5 40i and the debate every beach trip (320 miles) is should we give the Y a shot. And every time the conclusion is no. And our trip has SC every 100 miles. On our most recent trip the X5 got 27.2 mpg as measured at the pump, as the trip computer stated 29 mpg. That’s 600 miles on a tank! If we didn’t have 3 kids the 45e or 50e would be 100% the way to go here. The Y is commuting only for us with 70 miles per day charging overnight. However, if only 1 car or if you want a nicer interior etc the x5 phev wins hands down.

[flexspec]

EV’s are very much a niche product.
The typical “average person” analysis fails to approximate the value this product brings to specific markets. A more instructive analysis would be looking at owner data/trends.

People who live in big cities will garner more value than suburbs. Coastal over central/flyover states.

Personally — if I have to drive more than 1-2 hours I’m flying. The last time I was on a road trip was a kid. EV owners tend to be more affluent and bigger spenders — and the data demonstrates they think the same. They will take public transportation or fly. (The public transportation makes sense)

That said — I’m not an EV owner.