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      05-11-2022, 10:37 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
Good point, we are easily 20-30 years away from market saturation if infrastructure and battery tech get's up to speed, and that should be able to happen in that time frame. My concern is governments like Canada and UK saying they will ban the sales of ICE in a decade. There is going to be a gap, that combined with the crippling price of Gas and Diesel right now punishing people who can't change even if they want to.
It's not just Countries. It's manufacturers. I believe Volvo plans to stop all ICE production by 2030 and a few others also. It's probably a LOT easier for them to transition into EV versus ICE vehicles due to simpler production methods and fewer parts.
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      05-11-2022, 10:44 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by HerkHealer View Post
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Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
Good point, we are easily 20-30 years away from market saturation if infrastructure and battery tech get's up to speed, and that should be able to happen in that time frame. My concern is governments like Canada and UK saying they will ban the sales of ICE in a decade. There is going to be a gap, that combined with the crippling price of Gas and Diesel right now punishing people who can't change even if they want to.
It's not just Countries. It's manufacturers. I believe Volvo plans to stop all ICE production by 2030 and a few others also. It's probably a LOT easier for them to transition into EV versus ICE vehicles due to simpler production methods and fewer parts.
Volvo🤣. Good!! Let them stop tomorrow. Lol
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      05-11-2022, 11:21 AM   #179
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What fewer parts? Granted an electric motor has less parts, but batteries are just as complex to manufacture as engines. The charging hardware has expensive electrical components as well. I'm not sure the net gain in assembly is as much as everyone thinks.
I read an article some time ago. Basically no engine, no transmission, no differential, no axles, no gas tank, no liquids, etc....

As for the batteries/batter pack, from what i've read it comes pre-assembled to the factory as one bolt on unit. That is outside the manufacturer, so it does not impact them.

I'm not advocating EV and dont currently want one. Just saying that manufacturers probably see this as much easier for them.
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      05-11-2022, 11:59 AM   #180
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Originally Posted by HerkHealer View Post
I read an article some time ago. Basically no engine, no transmission, no differential, no axles, no gas tank, no liquids, etc....

As for the batteries/batter pack, from what i've read it comes pre-assembled to the factory as one bolt on unit. That is outside the manufacturer, so it does not impact them.

I'm not advocating EV and dont currently want one. Just saying that manufacturers probably see this as much easier for them.
In a dual motor configuration you have two motors, two transmissions (single speed), axles on either end, coolant loops for motors, inverters, heat pump, PTC heaters, etc.

There's still a lot of parts. They aren't necessarily as complex...and as a result don't need as much maintenance, but there's still a lot to consider.

Here's my GT "engine bay"

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      05-11-2022, 05:26 PM   #181
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Parts count doesn’t matter. Total cost out the factory door is what counts.

EVs require far less expensive, mostly unionized, labor to assemble. This is the brass ring the carmakers are reaching for.

High battery cost will get “figured out”. Vehicle assembly labor savings is today’s reality.

Regarding maintenance, battery cooling (glycol), inverter (high current) and high voltage cable connections are high stress areas that will fail or require maintenance.

No one talks about the inverter, it’s the critical link between battery and motor. As cost is stripped out of inverters over time, how many fried/bricked inverters will be reported on sites like this?

No inverter = no electricity flowing to the motor = stuck on the side of the road.

Last edited by chassis; 05-11-2022 at 07:13 PM..
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      05-13-2022, 05:18 PM   #182
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EVs are the future and as time goes by battery ranges are increasing and overcomes each problem. But in the meantime we think hybrids are still the best! You get the efficiency and of course you never have to worry about the range.
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      05-14-2022, 09:38 AM   #183
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If I had a daily commute to work, I'd pick an EV for that and keep an ICE car for weekend/fun. There's no denying EVs are smooth and effortless commuting. They make driving during your commute less stressful. It just makes sense for a luxury vehicle to be an EV.

Since I work from home, my only "commute" is dropping my daughter off at school and picking her up, and then occasionally whenever I need to either run an errand or just go out for fun. As such, every time I drive is an event, and for that I pick ICE 10 times out of 10. EVs are completely soulless appliances, which is great for a daily commute, but horrible if I want to feel a bit of emotion when I drive.
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      05-16-2022, 02:51 PM   #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
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Originally Posted by wtwo3 View Post
If I had a daily commute to work, I'd pick an EV for that and keep an ICE car for weekend/fun. There's no denying EVs are smooth and effortless commuting. They make driving during your commute less stressful. It just makes sense for a luxury vehicle to be an EV.

Since I work from home, my only "commute" is dropping my daughter off at school and picking her up, and then occasionally whenever I need to either run an errand or just go out for fun. As such, every time I drive is an event, and for that I pick ICE 10 times out of 10. EVs are completely soulless appliances, which is great for a daily commute, but horrible if I want to feel a bit of emotion when I drive.
What happens when ICE is no longer a choice?
We will be dead. So who cares. Lol
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      05-16-2022, 02:54 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
What happens when ICE is no longer a choice?
"When" is the million dollar question. Now if you were to ask me "if"... I'd say, well I guess I'm SOL and will have no choice but to migrate over to an EV. But as long as ICE is a viable option, then that'll be my pick.
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      05-16-2022, 03:18 PM   #186
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Agreed. Me too. But what happens if some crazy fcks just ban gasoline and engines? EVs are tolerable to most people now if ICE are still available. EV will never get to 400 mile range AND 5-minute recharge and be affordable.
NEVER?

interesting....
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      05-16-2022, 03:23 PM   #187
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Agreed. Me too. But what happens if some crazy fcks just ban gasoline and engines? EVs are tolerable to most people now if ICE are still available. EV will never get to 400 mile range AND 5-minute recharge and be affordable.
That's a bold claim. Once battery tech advances past what we have now, there will be an insane EV boom. I'm 25 and I feel that it will easily happen in my lifetime.
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      05-16-2022, 04:45 PM   #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Agreed. Me too. But what happens if some crazy fcks just ban gasoline and engines? EVs are tolerable to most people now if ICE are still available. EV will never get to 400 mile range AND 5-minute recharge and be affordable.
I'm assuming you mean ban for private use and not commercial use. Cause banning ICE across the board would cripple the economy since 99% of logistics are dependent on gas. Everything would be in shortage because nobody could distribute things... and even if by some miracle disrribution companies went full EV... what sort of lead time could we expect if a truck had to make a cross country trip and recharge multiple times? We'd have to completely rethink long haul trucking.

Until EV infrastructure doesn't catch up, i don't see EV being a viable primary option for economies.
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      05-16-2022, 11:55 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Agreed. Me too. But what happens if some crazy fcks just ban gasoline and engines? EVs are tolerable to most people now if ICE are still available. EV will never get to 400 mile range AND 5-minute recharge and be affordable.
Would you need 5 minute recharge if you could just swap batteries?
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      05-17-2022, 03:50 AM   #190
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I consider the near future 10 years. We are at least 20 years away (at our current rate of implementation) from having the infrastructure required to support 80% EV adoption in the US.

The real problem is there are so many things that need to happen in parallel and require immense coordination and strategic planning. Things that are just too far outside the scope of what most governments and corporations are able to manage on this scale.

Governments don't care about what's reasonable or realistic; just what yields the most favorable optics and makes lobbyists happy. Corporations don't care about what's best for the environment or the customer; just what yields the biggest return as quickly as possible. Make these two parties work together and how do you think this is going to end?
It's the same here, gov's are leading public up the garden path believing lies from the green analysts and as long as they collect taxes they really don't care at the outcome.
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      05-17-2022, 07:54 AM   #191
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That's a bold claim. Once battery tech advances past what we have now, there will be an insane EV boom. I'm 25 and I feel that it will easily happen in my lifetime.
I'm 60, ok 61 in a 10 days. A number of governments are now mandating EV's only by 2035. 13 years is a long time in the technology advancement world, but I don't know that the infrastructure and rapid charging capability will be in place by then to eliminate ICE. Government has been known to get it wrong in the past. Having said that, the life expectancy of ICE is about 12 years, so assuming there will still be ICE sales in 2034 that has ICE vehicles on the road into the mid 2040's. I likely won't still be behind the wheel then.

I'd like to see some balance in the approach by governments.
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      05-17-2022, 07:57 AM   #192
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Would you need 5 minute recharge if you could just swap batteries?
What does that even look like, you'd pull into a drive through oil change type of bay and a number of techs would change out your battery? How many fresh batteries would have to be at any one charging station in order to fulfill demand? This doesn't sound like a logistically smooth operation, and I'm going to suggest not an inexpensive one. Then there will be the disputes when you exchange a battery that isn't holding a charge or get one that isn't holding a charge. I think this is a fantasy at best.
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      05-17-2022, 08:42 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
I'm 60, ok 61 in a 10 days. A number of governments are now mandating EV's only by 2035. 13 years is a long time in the technology advancement world, but I don't know that the infrastructure and rapid charging capability will be in place by then to eliminate ICE. Government has been known to get it wrong in the past. Having said that, the life expectancy of ICE is about 12 years, so assuming there will still be ICE sales in 2034 that has ICE vehicles on the road into the mid 2040's. I likely won't still be behind the wheel then.

I'd like to see some balance in the approach by governments.
That's my biggest thing. Cali already does brown and blackouts. Using some rough numbers, in 2020 they sold a little over 1 million EV's and there are 14.2 million cars registered there. That's a tad over 7% of all vehicles. What in the heck are they going to do when that number triples? If 21% of all Cali residents are trying to charge their cars at the same time (at night after work), pulling anywhere from 12-40 amps per car, that's going to cause the entire state to go into a blackout... I don't work in the power industry nor do I claim to be remotely educated in power and electrification, simply typing out loud.
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      05-17-2022, 08:53 AM   #194
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That's my biggest thing. Cali already does brown and blackouts. Using some rough numbers, in 2020 they sold a little over 1 million EV's and there are 14.2 million cars registered there. That's a tad over 7% of all vehicles. What in the heck are they going to do when that number triples? If 21% of all Cali residents are trying to charge their cars at the same time (at night after work), pulling anywhere from 12-40 amps per car, that's going to cause the entire state to go into a blackout... I don't work in the power industry nor do I claim to be remotely educated in power and electrification, simply typing out loud.
The state strongly incentivizes time of use rates to mitigate. You're going to be charged a whoooole lot more money to plug in during peak times versus plugging in before bed.

There is also a fairly large increase in the number of homes adopting solar with battery storage.

Imagine what could be done with the grid's capacity if all those oil and gas subsidies went to beefing up our infrastructure instead!
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      05-17-2022, 08:54 AM   #195
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What does that even look like, you'd pull into a drive through oil change type of bay and a number of techs would change out your battery? How many fresh batteries would have to be at any one charging station in order to fulfill demand? This doesn't sound like a logistically smooth operation, and I'm going to suggest not an inexpensive one. Then there will be the disputes when you exchange a battery that isn't holding a charge or get one that isn't holding a charge. I think this is a fantasy at best.
It's happening in China.

https://www.scmp.com/video/scmp-orig...e-ev-batteries

There is a technological race here and China is going to win if we don't quit putting up barriers to innovation.
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      05-17-2022, 09:46 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Murf the Surf View Post
What does that even look like, you'd pull into a drive through oil change type of bay and a number of techs would change out your battery? How many fresh batteries would have to be at any one charging station in order to fulfill demand? This doesn't sound like a logistically smooth operation, and I'm going to suggest not an inexpensive one. Then there will be the disputes when you exchange a battery that isn't holding a charge or get one that isn't holding a charge. I think this is a fantasy at best.
My point wasn't to incite your apprehension and panic, it was to show you that a rather simple solution exists for your perceived problem. Yes, it will be a matter of companies wanting to participate, but it is by no means an insurmountable problem.
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      05-17-2022, 10:21 AM   #197
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I rarely see it asked, but it's a key to the goal.

"Where will all those Watts come from?"

I work in the power industry where we make and distribute those watts on a huge scale. We aren't ready to make nor distribute those Watts. Even if we were, how would we make them?

You can mandate these electric cars, but there is no accompanying mandates or funding to supply power to them. The supply side will suffer terribly. It won't work as currently planned, and it takes a terribly long time to get anything done in the power industry even when there is money and a good plan (and currently there is neither).
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      05-17-2022, 10:39 AM   #198
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I rarely see it asked, but it's a key to the goal.

"Where will all those Watts come from?"

I work in the power industry where we make and distribute those watts on a huge scale. We aren't ready to make nor distribute those Watts. Even if we were, how would we make them?

You can mandate these electric cars, but there is no accompanying mandates or funding to supply power to them. The supply side will suffer terribly. It won't work as currently planned, and it takes a terribly long time to get anything done in the power industry even when there is money and a good plan (and currently there is neither).
Most EVs charge at night when the grid is under-utilized. The grid is being constantly updated as far as capacity and infrastructure, more in some places and less in others, but generally grows over time.

Are this OAN talking points or something?
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