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      09-25-2022, 03:39 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by Nahlem View Post
The Rav4 hybrid is a "slow" car as you would put it nor is it the best looking out there, still it is the US most sold car and your most sold truck is still the pickups witch will be coming with EV drivetrain soon, just as the Rivian is here and the F150 lightning also comes in EV its a matter of marketing more then anything else when it comes to cars like this to get the masses to switch.

Most people as i have stated before do not go for a performance car that is mostly forums like this and its members, witch is a minority when it comes to sales of cars, even if people on this forums were buying 2-3 cars at once and all were performance cars it would still be a minimal bump in their sales compared to the big masses of other cars they sell with smaller engines more often then the big ones. So my point on this still stands more true then before people choose cars that mostly looks good but the biggest selling is if the car has the right colour then anything else.
So that does nothing to counter my belief that majority of people don't buy the cheapest, most efficient, shittiest car that is sold. Which is why I also think that we don't' drive the most efficient cars is not because they can't make them more efficient, it's because those that make cars know what people will buy, and make that. Peoples personal preferences and decision making drives what is manufactured, not the existence or lack of technology.

I used to own a 2009 Altima Hybrid. You can't buy one in 2022 here today. The 2009 hybrid gets better MPG than any of the 2022 models. It's not because Nissan doesn't know how to make them, it's because they didn't sell. The discussion we are having stemmed from the idea that we can't make ICE's more efficient. Not true. We can, but people don't want them.

You state people get cars that look nice first and foremost, but then explain how ugly the top selling RAV 4 is, are you arguing against yourself here?

The RAV 4 is slow, but it could be slower and more efficient. It's not because people don't want that. Our poor ICE efficiency is not lack of ability, it's consumer choice.

Nobody needs a Plaid, and it's not the most efficient EV either. People want it, so it's made for that reason. The Hummer EV is a great example of going backwards in the green movement of the EV market. It emits more CO2 per mile driven than many ICE's. It's also ugly and not cheap or slow. And yet it's sold out.

Quote:
When it comes to development of battery you are talking about Tesla like there hasn't been any advancement made in battery tech in the last few years witch isn't true, we are more then likely closer to 600 miles EV then not, we have seen Mercedes already done it with current tech, we will see BMW get there fast, and i will still go by the word from Northvolt Engineers that work here in my town of Vasteras where they are developing the battery's and they will most certainly disagree with your assessment of that battery tech hasn't developed in the last few years or as you put it won't develop.
We could have had a 600 mile EV 10 years ago. There is a reason we don't, or are just now getting there.

They have been developing cold fusion for decades. It will be here any day now... for decades...

When new battery tech is real, it will still take a decade or more to develop to production level readiness.

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Again every 5 years double the capacity while reducing its weight will be the norm.
Doubling capacity involved adding twice the cells, they can do that any time they want. It's not science, it's math.

Reducing weight will require an invention that hasn't been invented yet. Good luck on that. I know it will happen, but "when" seems to be the problem.

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      09-25-2022, 04:13 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by GoneIn4Secs View Post
Heres another reason we should ALL switch over to EVs and cheerlead the govts new legislations banning ICE cars

Got a dead battery in your tesla?? No problem! you are now the proud owner of a brand new $150k, 5 tonne paperweight!

Man Says Tesla 'Locked Him Out' of Car Until He Pays for $26K Battery
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...743016%3famp=1

I must say if I had one of those EV's I'd faint if that message came up lol
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      09-25-2022, 05:01 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by Nahlem View Post
And because of the long process of certification for these type of flights the faster they have to come up with the solution and not keep using jet fuel for that if it takes as you say a decade to get a flight certified then the faster we put EV flights in to action for the long process for certification the better it should rather have be done yester year and not now.

Yet we are seeing the battery tech evolve faster then the combustion technology have done for the last 100 years so that speaks lengths for the coming tech compared to combustion.

If we aren't putting out so much more Co2 compared to what the earth can handle and recycle and yeah don't get me wrong earth will be fine we on the other hand won't, And so far research is showing that unfortunately we are putting out more C02 then the earth can handle at this current rate we are in for a bad time.

But then again i hardly believe that c02 is the only issue, its one small issue in the magnitude of many in terms of what we are releasing out in to our atmosphere. So don't get me wrong or mistaken for a crazy green cause i truly don't believe in their doomsday prophecy if you would have read my post correctly you would have seen that, nor do i believe that everyone or every place on earth is going full electric it is not realistic nor feasible right now, but investing in ICE technology witch is old tech and a technology that we have to put behind us sooner then later because it is truly unmodern using that type of fuel to propel us forward when there is far better options as i have stated earlier, then keep using this old tech if they could have developed ICE engines with zero emissions they would have but unfortunately they can't and so it should be put to the past.



Because they are afraid of the bad reviews from old dino journalist so they haven't taken that step yet but should probably sens people will still buy the trucks.

The Rav4 hybrid is a "slow" car as you would put it nor is it the best looking out there, still it is the US most sold car and your most sold truck is still the pickups witch will be coming with EV drivetrain soon, just as the Rivian is here and the F150 lightning also comes in EV its a matter of marketing more then anything else when it comes to cars like this to get the masses to switch.

Most people as i have stated before do not go for a performance car that is mostly forums like this and its members, witch is a minority when it comes to sales of cars, even if people on this forums were buying 2-3 cars at once and all were performance cars it would still be a minimal bump in their sales compared to the big masses of other cars they sell with smaller engines more often then the big ones. So my point on this still stands more true then before people choose cars that mostly looks good but the biggest selling is if the car has the right colour then anything else.

When it comes to development of battery you are talking about Tesla like there hasn't been any advancement made in battery tech in the last few years witch isn't true, we are more then likely closer to 600 miles EV then not, we have seen Mercedes already done it with current tech, we will see BMW get there fast, and i will still go by the word from Northvolt Engineers that work here in my town of Vasteras where they are developing the battery's and they will most certainly disagree with your assessment of that battery tech hasn't developed in the last few years or as you put it won't develop.

Again every 5 years double the capacity while reducing its weight will be the norm.


Preach!!!!
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      09-25-2022, 07:58 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
They have been developing cold fusion for decades. It will be here any day now... for decades...
I'm not sure if you even check or know what you write.

No one I am aware of is "developing" cold fusion. I stay pretty up to date on the subject of fusion. In fact, what we are developing could be termed "hot" fusion, much hotter than the fusion that occurs in the sun, because we can't replicate the massive gravitational force that enables the type of fusion that occurs there. The problem with fusion...education and media, is that they are usually not telling you the true "power in" figure for the "power out". Some recent projects would make you think we are getting close to breaking even or maybe even have, but they are not using the total "power in" figure when describing it. So when you look at where it *really is*, it's got a long long ways to go. Tritium production is also a pretty hard one to figure out. Certain fusion reactors *may* be able to breed it, but current production is by certain Canadian fission reactors that are shutting down due to age and there's a very limited supply, like 165lbs, and due to it's half-life, it goes pretty fast. Back to the power in and out though, we are not close to making this practical, that's why it's "undefined years away".

On your battery technology rant,

Solid state is starting prototype testing for ~2025 production. That means they have the designs and tech and are fielding the cars and making changes and getting everything working well together, just like if they were making an ICE engine car for the same model year.

Yes, we'll see the pace of development and technology taper off (or move to some other energy storage means) as we get closer to materials limits, but we are not there yet. They likely won't make long haul trucking or long distance passenger aircraft practical anywhere in the near future, but all the range that 99% of people need is within sight.
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      09-25-2022, 08:49 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
I'm not sure if you even check or know what you write.

No one I am aware of is "developing" cold fusion. I stay pretty up to date on the subject of fusion. In fact, what we are developing could be termed "hot" fusion, much hotter than the fusion that occurs in the sun, because we can't replicate the massive gravitational force that enables the type of fusion that occurs there. The problem with fusion...education and media, is that they are usually not telling you the true "power in" figure for the "power out". Some recent projects would make you think we are getting close to breaking even or maybe even have, but they are not using the total "power in" figure when describing it. So when you look at where it *really is*, it's got a long long ways to go. Tritium production is also a pretty hard one to figure out. Certain fusion reactors *may* be able to breed it, but current production is by certain Canadian fission reactors that are shutting down due to age and there's a very limited supply, like 165lbs, and due to it's half-life, it goes pretty fast. Back to the power in and out though, we are not close to making this practical, that's why it's "undefined years away".
Google searches are probably the best way to respond, but I doubt you will bother. It's still being tried. It's an example of energy solutions that will save the world, that never deliver / materialize.

Quote:
On your battery technology rant,

Solid state is starting prototype testing for ~2025 production. That means they have the designs and tech and are fielding the cars and making changes and getting everything working well together, just like if they were making an ICE engine car for the same model year.

Yes, we'll see the pace of development and technology taper off (or move to some other energy storage means) as we get closer to materials limits, but we are not there yet. They likely won't make long haul trucking or long distance passenger aircraft practical anywhere in the near future, but all the range that 99% of people need is within sight.
Current battery tech has advanced ~10-12% in 10 years. Not double in 5.

New tech is "on it's way". Sure it is. Great.

A solid state battery can store more energy with less materials and can decrease the carbon footprint of an EV battery by 24%


https://electrek.co/2022/07/19/how-s...ally%20cheaper.

Still not the double capacity in 5 years we hear promised. And that assumes it even works as hoped.


Forget Moore's law when it comes to storage tech. It's not technology that will solve this, you can't fight physics.

Then there are unfortunate facts like this :

Solid state batteries require up to 35% more lithium than current lithium-ion battery technology,

but who cares, right? That's somebody else's problem...

35% > 24% =/= progress

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      09-25-2022, 10:06 PM   #182
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Snips from this article :

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electr...te-battery-ev/

You might wonder why solid-state batteries arenít being used in EVs given they seen to be the panacea to the problems in lithium-ion batteries. But the challenge with solid-state batteries is they are very difficult to manufacture at scale.

Not only are they currently too expensive to be pushed out into commercial use, thereís still a lot of work to be done to make them ready for mass market use, notably in EVs.

At the moment, thereís still a need to find the right atomic and chemical composition for a solid electrolyte that has the right ionic conductivity to deliver enough power for an EV motor.

Thatís why we prefixed the advantages of solid-state batteries with Ďcouldí as theyíve yet to prove themselves out in the real-world in a consumer gadget let alone an electric car.

Getting the solid electrolyte right is particularly important as itís the precursor to allowing the use of lithium anodes, which can produce more lithium-ions and thereby more energy. A solid-state electrode is thought to be the solution to the problem of damaging needle-like structures called dendrites forming on the anode as it charges.

As one of the largest lithium-ion battery makers in the world, Panasonic has skin in that battery game. Nevertheless it reckons solid-state batteries are still some ten years away from commercial use.

It does co-own Teslaís Gigafactory and supplies the batteries for Tesla cars, and it reckons the improvement in EV batteries in the short-term will come from further developing lithium-ion batteries.

Rather than go down the solid-state route, Tesla is working on improving the performance of lithium-ion batteries, with it last year touting new chemistry which could power an EV for more than a million miles.

Given the improvements in lithium-ion batteries and the millage that can be extracted out from them, as well as how they are already being mass produced, itís unlikely weíll see them ousted by solid-state batteries anytime soon.

But solid state batteries do look like the future power source for electric cars, itís just the road to them might be longer than first thought.


^ Not my words, but these facts form my opinions.
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      09-25-2022, 10:55 PM   #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Google searches are probably the best way to respond, but I doubt you will bother. It's still being tried. It's an example of energy solutions that will save the world, that never deliver / materialize.
The only people reading or making stories about "cold fusion" are crackpots. That you had to post about it makes me think you might be one of them.
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      09-25-2022, 10:57 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
Solid state batteries require up to 35% more lithium than current lithium-ion battery technology,
But they use far less graphite and cobalt. Stop trying to paint in black and white like you hold unique knowledge.
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      09-25-2022, 10:59 PM   #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
But they use far less graphite and cobalt. Stop trying to paint in black and white like you hold unique knowledge.
Did you even read the article? they don't even exist yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
But they use far less graphite and cobalt. Stop trying to paint in black and white like you hold unique knowledge.
It's an example of people believing in something that hasn't been invented yet.

Are you catching on now?
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      09-26-2022, 10:48 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
It's an example of people believing in something that hasn't been invented yet.

Are you catching on now?
You really need to change your news sources. The solid state batteries are in production right now, the ones that will be powering cars. This is already in progress.
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      09-26-2022, 10:54 AM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
You really need to change your news sources. The solid state batteries are in production right now, the ones that will be powering cars. This is already in progress.
And none of them have delivered on the promise, it's still being invented. Solid state batteries exist but don't work as intended yet. Cold fusion exists too, it just doesn't work as intended yet. Both are just waiting for somebody to figure out how to make it work as intended. Until then ? ...

The news source I just shared with you is only 3 months old, and says Panasonic/Tesla think it's 10 years out at best, and isn't even working it into their products.

When Musk the EV messiah doesn't jump on an opportunity to pioneer a product innovation into production to save the world, as someone that is revered for his business and engineering savvy, that ought to tell you something. Both economically and from a logistics/physics perspective, it's obviously not happening on the timeline proposed in this discussion.

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      09-26-2022, 12:27 PM   #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
And none of them have delivered on the promise, it's still being invented. Solid state batteries exist but don't work as intended yet. Cold fusion exists too, it just doesn't work as intended yet. Both are just waiting for somebody to figure out how to make it work as intended. Until then ? ...

The news source I just shared with you is only 3 months old, and says Panasonic/Tesla think it's 10 years out at best, and isn't even working it into their products.

When Musk the EV messiah doesn't jump on an opportunity to pioneer a product innovation into production to save the world, as someone that is revered for his business and engineering savvy, that ought to tell you something. Both economically and from a logistics/physics perspective, it's obviously not happening on the timeline proposed in this discussion.
What do you mean by ďdeliveredĒ? Please be specific.

Why do you keep bringing up cold fusion? No one is discussing this.
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      09-26-2022, 12:34 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
You really need to change your news sources. The solid state batteries are in production right now, the ones that will be powering cars. This is already in progress.
Itíll take some time but itís here.

Why are people acting like thereís a halt to this process?

Technology is forever improving. By 2030 people will see the huge difference. 2035 is being forgiving.

Weíll see this happen way before then.
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      09-26-2022, 01:30 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
What do you mean by ďdeliveredĒ? Please be specific.
what EV manufacturer is using a solid-state battery?

What is the chosen chemistry/model that will be used to scale production from, and who makes it?

when was it delivered to the market?


Quote:
Why do you keep bringing up cold fusion? No one is discussing this.
Same reason people keep bring up solid state batteries as the solution for our EV and renewable power grid stabilization future. It's not here yet, but they are still working on it.

I don't believe in changing policy based on non-existent solutions. Perhaps that's my problem.

You want to sell something you don't have. In some areas of business, that's considered fraud.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post

Lots of to-be-knowns.
Don't worry yourself, they have a guy working in the back room on that problem right now... He's not done yet, but it's going to be any day now, and it's going to be great.
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      09-26-2022, 01:34 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
You really need to change your news sources. The solid state batteries are in production right now, the ones that will be powering cars. This is already in progress.
Toyota is the only manufacturer that has had a prototype vehicle running solely on solid state batteries. We are still in alpha stage for solid state batteries. Toyota/Panasonic hold the most patents in the space, no one else is even close(they setup of joint venture in 2020). The first production car with solid state battery will be produced by Toyota(they have set a date for 2025). They themselves recently have said it will be a hybrid, as the technology is not ready for prime time in an all-electric. The rumor is the next-gen Prius will have a solid state battery pack. Two things holding back solid state tech for autos, cost and battery life. Early prototypes are seeing excessive degradation due to repeated charging cycles. Manufacturing costs need to come down upwards of 50% to make them practical.
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      09-26-2022, 01:47 PM   #192
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
Someone, I think RM7, posted the declining cost curve of wet lithium batteries, which showed in 2021 the curve flattening to around $135/kWh.
With wet cells pricing flattening out and being at or near the bottom of the price curve, having a model S battery ring in around $25K ought to be a warning sign about the economic viability of supporting this drivetrain platform shift in the future.

As you have pointed out, switching that curve to a new product starts the cost cycle all over. It's likely we'll be able to make better batteries in the future, but I doubt the "they will be cheaper" part, for this very reason. Just like how cars in general don't get cheaper.

I don't know how one can predict the future without looking at the past and present as a basis, but it seems to be happening all the same.

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      09-26-2022, 03:17 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by chad86tsi View Post
what EV manufacturer is using a solid-state battery?
The batteries exist, there are literally pictures of them holding them. They are entering test phase right now. I guess by "deliver" you mean who is making a full fledged production model that you can buy right now? Well, that wasn't the point. The point is the testing is going on right now. This goes back to how far auto makers plan and test their vehicles for model years. They don't just plan this one or two years before deployment. This is a much longer process and they are already deep into it. If you haven't watched the videos on the BMW EV factories, you should. The writing is on the wall.
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      09-26-2022, 03:31 PM   #194
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Well, that wasn't the point. The point is the testing is going on right now.
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      09-26-2022, 03:33 PM   #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RM7 View Post
The batteries exist, there are literally pictures of them holding them. They are entering test phase right now. I guess by "deliver" you mean who is making a full fledged production model that you can buy right now? Well, that wasn't the point. The point is the testing is going on right now. This goes back to how far auto makers plan and test their vehicles for model years. They don't just plan this one or two years before deployment. This is a much longer process and they are already deep into it. If you haven't watched the videos on the BMW EV factories, you should. The writing is on the wall.
Sometimes... experimental tests actually fail. And sometimes they fail catastrophically. Sometimes they lead to amazing accidental discoveries.

But with the uncertainty of the outcome of "entering the test phase right now", how do you rationally base a future-state for a planet on that?
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      09-26-2022, 04:18 PM   #196
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Solid state batteries will be used in hybrids first, mainly because of cost. Hybrids use relatively small battery packs. Higher end vehicles will be first all-electric vehicles to get solid state packs($100k+ msrp). Lower end more affordable EV's will remain using traditional lithium ion batteries. Only until manufacturers can get solid state production costs equal or below lithium ion batteries, we won't see them in majority of EV's(decade+ away). Lithium ion battery prices are expected to reach approximately $60/kWh by 2030, in the same time frame solid-state batteries are expected to cost approximately $80-90/kWh. So 8 years from now, we will still be looking at a 35-50% premium for solid state batteries. This is going to take time.
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      09-26-2022, 05:40 PM   #197
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Right. This will take time. But why are people thinking it's a failure and we're going to reverse technology?

The evolution is happening now. That's why there's a 2035 ban.

I suspect it to happen a lot sooner though. 2030 is probably a good year.

This will be awesome!
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      09-26-2022, 08:26 PM   #198
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