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01-06-2018, 09:14 PM | #1 |
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Many EV's will be autonomous, and you may never even own one
Not to spoil the party, but the period of owner-driven electric cars is likely to be relatively short. The future is fleets of autonomous electric cars with monthly contracts or pay by the ride. The move to electric cars is really a move to autonomous cars. It will lead to much safer and much faster commutes but a lot less fun. Aficionados will keep a car at the track for the weekend ride much the same way horses are kept at a stable. The upside is pretty big - 30,000 fewer car deaths a year in the US alone. But the folks inhabiting this site will certainly feel a sense of loss. So go for it while you can.
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01-08-2018, 01:52 PM | #2 | |
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01-08-2018, 06:07 PM | #3 | ||
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I see a mix of autonomous fleets, autonomous individual owned, driver-driven electric, and legacy IC cars for quite a while. It will also depend on where you live - city, burbs, exurbs, or rural. There are also built in biases from manufacturers. Of course BMW wants everyone to have an individually owned car. But once people are not driving them, cars will get commoditized pretty quickly. To see what the markets think of the autonomous driving future, take a look at NVIDIA (NVDA) one of the leaders in autonomous technology among other GPU end uses. Look at the 2 year and five year charts. The implications of this switch are enormous in a host of dimensions- which companies will survive, employment in the auto and related sectors from auto and parts manufacturing to professional drivers (truck, delivery, can), to public health, to infrastructure. This is a big deal. Of course, I could be completely wrong. |
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01-08-2018, 08:05 PM | #4 | |
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01-08-2018, 08:42 PM | #5 | ||
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The DOT isn't independent. It really depends on how the Congress and the President react to the countervailing interests. We'll see what interests are opposed. It's not as if driving is currently a safe activity. |
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01-08-2018, 09:22 PM | #6 | ||
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01-09-2018, 05:35 AM | #7 | |
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The leading advocates and developers of autonomous vehicles state that one of the biggest challenges to converting to autonomous driving in the near future is the interaction of autonomous vehicles with non-autonomous vehicles, which matches your contention that the transition to autonomous vehicles will require banning human-driven vehicles. It is clear that the engineering solution to safe autonomous vehicle operation is to prevent the interaction of computer software operated vehicles with human operated vehicles. Humans have yet to produce error-free computer code and never will because humans are error-prone. Crashes will still happen even if every vehicle is computer controlled and the estimates of reducing the vehicle-related death toll from 30,000 down to a extremely lower number are just that, estimates. I work in the automated transportation industry (air traffic), and dealing with the DOT for the decade-plus I have been, I can assure you the US DOT is not going to let the commercial automotive industry (i.e. the current-day manufacturers) develop and self-regulate the autonomous ground-vehicle transportation industry. The last thing the Federal government does and is not capable of doing is moving fast. And if you somehow think that US law which prevents US gun manufacturers from being sued is equal to future law that allows autonomous vehicle manufacturers and autonomous transportation service providers off the hook for vehicle deaths, then that is a misunderstanding of gun laws. Until Government and Industry publish a real viable transition plan to autonomous driving, the future you believe that is close at hand is just fantasy at this point. My 2 cents.
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Last edited by Efthreeoh; 01-09-2018 at 07:20 AM.. |
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01-09-2018, 07:40 AM | #8 |
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I don't see a ban on ICE cars anytime soon. Yes autonomous tech will increasing be utilized and released by manfuactures, but it will take time for it to be fully autonomous and it will take time for people to accept it and for the tech to prove itself.
I don't see this as a bad thing, I want the idiots off the road or in autonomous cars. I will just zoom by them in my ICE car. I'm also fine with them eventually banning ICE cars in dense city centers, I don't want to drive my car in gridlock traffic anyways, I prefer an urban back road.
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01-09-2018, 11:08 AM | #9 | |
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01-09-2018, 02:32 PM | #10 | |
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While China is pacing EV development and production, U.S. cities do not suffer from many of the same issues that China's does -- and that includes government regulatory intervention. What China's central government says, goes, without opposition -- and that government has the capital resources to make whatever it says happen. What the U.S. government says only goes after years upon years of debate, negotiations with affected parties (i.e., companies, civic and state governments), elections, popular sentiment, etc. Only an abject fool would compare what China feels it needs with what the U.S. feels it needs. As I've mentioned in other posts, explain to me how a farmer or rancher in rural Texas can use an EV. Similarly, explain to me how a farmer or rancher in Hunan Province can use an EV -- or one in Uzbekistan. Or Vietnam. Or most of India. Or The Gambia. Or the Ukraine. Or Brazil. Finally, explain to me how, say, a school teacher can use an EV in any nonurban area in any of the above countries. Shall I go on? I share the sentiment of Efthreeoh but for different reasons. States are clamoring to test EVs and autonomous vehicles because it's politically expedient right now to gain public favor as well as post-industrial commerce. Once the 'real thing' becomes possible, however, the rat's nest of implementation will hold it up for years, if not decades -- unless, of course, the U.S. has turned itself into a socialist entity like China or, say, Norway, which is highly, highly, HIGHLY unlikely.
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01-09-2018, 05:11 PM | #11 |
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haha, i laugh whenever people make these sweeping, grandiose claims about the future of the automobile and mobility industry. It sounds like pure regurgitation of the past ~3 years of BS strategy consultants have been shoving down CEO and CFO's throats to get more recurring revenue. McKinsey, BCG, Bain... all of them do it. How do I know, I worked for them, in this industry, on these projects... it's all blue sky, pie in the sky crap. Remember 20 years ago when EVs were supposed to dominate the market in 20 years? EVs are now, what, 1.2% of sales?? Autonomous driving is a joke at least for 50+ years and after the gov't passes regulations and fixes the infrastructure. And urban center are supposed to be where this begins? Again wrong, urban centers don't need cars, they have light rail, buses, etc. Why would you subscribe to a car service when you can use Uber? LOL. Sorry, but do you really think we will be getting driven around in EVs in 10 years? The auto industry is a behemoth to move as it is not agile and is undercut by regulations, infrastructure, customer perception of safety and actual safety standards.
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01-09-2018, 09:33 PM | #13 | |
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
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01-09-2018, 09:33 PM | #14 |
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Please expand on this thought....
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
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01-10-2018, 07:32 AM | #16 | |
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For example, a number of Level 3 autonomous vehicles are scheduled to hit the market this year. But perhaps you think those products are doomed and will never actually see the light of day? If so, I am curious to learn more from you. There's significant money to be made if this doesn't happen, realize. |
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01-10-2018, 07:49 AM | #17 |
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Wow. Lots of hostility.
So this is what I said:"I see a mix of autonomous fleets, autonomous individual owned, driver-driven electric, and legacy IC cars for quite a while. It will also depend on where you live - city, burbs, exurbs, or rural." The move to electric is already under way. Further, the success of Uber and Lyft tells you the demand for own-car alternatives is extremely high in urban areas. Well beyond what was once thought. The real tipping point will be the self-driving car. Technological change tends to happen slower than you think and then suddenly faster than you think. The use of 4-G and soon to be 5-G connected mobile phones is an obvious example of rapid technological change. How old is the iphone? 10 years? Did you all see that coming? Or did you think "picture phones" were akin to flying cars. And 5G will blow away 4G. The speed and success of autonomous driving is certainly open for debate. And every car company, parts producer, tech company and leading semiconductor company could be wrong. But this is not some odd futurist bullshit and some guy inventing in his basement. The investments are already in the tens if not hundreds of of billions of dollars when considering monies spent on electric drive trains, battery technology, AI, semiconductor development, software development, and electronics. Capitalization of companies in this space have skyrocketed. It is part of national industrial policy in some countries, How much did Intel spend for Mobileye? Look at Nvidia. How much is Google spending? I guess they're all idiots poring money into a sinkhole. Or waiting for their investments to pay off in 30 years? As for how it will affect access to the roads for owner operated cars, it doesn't require much imagination. If autonomous vehicles are safer and faster, cars that are less safe and slower will face increased regulation and eventual prohibition from some areas. Do you doubt there will be lanes set aside for autonomous long-haul trucks if the technology proves out? |
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01-10-2018, 07:50 AM | #18 | |
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Open your mind to the possibilities, or you can become extinct like Blockbuster, Type-writers, Blackberry/Nokia/Motorola/etc headset divisions, etc, etc because they had leaders that thought like you.
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01-10-2018, 09:16 AM | #19 | |
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Without 5G data speeds, LiDar and GPS accuracy to the cm, L3 (as commonly defined in the latest research won't be possible). As a marketing technique, yes, companies will tout their cars as L3 but in reality, that will be backed up by multiple asterisks/footnotes saying that the driver should be able to take control at any time. |
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01-10-2018, 09:36 AM | #20 | ||
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Audi A8 for one and tentatively other VAG products. GM might not make it for 2018, but they are close.
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At any rate, clearly there is a progression of technology already in motion here with real results being shown. So it would be interesting to hear, from those who think its going to hit a brick wall (pun intended), about when and how that will take place. Doomsday predictions are a dime-a-dozen and accountability in that area tends to be low as you may have noticed. Actual reasoned arguments for how and why failure is imminent are few and far between. Oh, and for the record, I don't necessarily stand in alignment with what the OP said. There are social and political forces that go beyond technology and those are tough to model for. I personally intend to buy an electric car as soon as range anxiety is dealt with to my satisfaction, and to my admittedly untrained hobbyist eye, that appears set to happen long before the autonomous ride share model "takes over". |
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01-10-2018, 02:24 PM | #21 | |
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Yes, Audi is coming out with a new A8 in 2018 as a 2019 model. However, the tech used for L3 in that car is still unproven and will likely not be an option to even pick from. Audi hasn't even gotten regulatory approvals to allow this tech for use on the roads. Customer sentiment is super low for this type of tech. This will not be cheap so how many people will be comfortable paying big bucks for something they don't really trust. On top of all of that, Audi is unclear whether or not they will be liable if an accident happens during the 10 sec transition period between L3 and Driver (these are the asterisks I was eluding to). Anyone have any actual examples of soon-to-be production cars with L3+ tech? The audi is just a bunch of sensors emulating AI, no real AI has been developed enough to throw on a car. Besides, the OP was eluding to L5 cars and a fantasy land like iRobot. |
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01-10-2018, 03:13 PM | #22 | |
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You're off topic with your questions about BimmerPost cultural climate and your discomfort with the debates about Tesla. I can move those elsewhere if you like. Let me know.
I also detect hostility from you, and it threatens to make what could be a productive discussion unnecessarily uncomfortable. I trust that we can reverse that from this point forward. Now then, you asked for me to elaborate, and I did. My original response was to another poster who does not appear interested in accounting for his claims. I think it is important for us to respond to those types of sentiments with an invitation to have some reasoned dialogue. Consulting can be challenging. Predicting the future isn't easy, and when you are being paid for your expert opinion of what action plan is best, that can be stressful. I hope that the advice you are giving out today turns into a fruitful tomorrow for your clients. Cheers Quote:
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